There is a chance that ERHC will find oil in this one well. ERHC does not have the money for a second well nor has CEPSA committed to drilling a second well. So, in my mind, investing in ERHC is betting on a single well which, by ERHC's own calculations, has less than a 20% chance of success. That isn't a terrible number for an exploration well like this, but it is a realistic number.
So, after factoring all of that in is ERHC still undervalued at this price? Probably. But not by as much as some may believe.
And as far as Ntephe and Obodulu buying, nobody knows if this well will hit or not until it is drilled. They are taking the same risk as every other shareholder with no additional knowledge about the only thing that matters. Will ERHC hit oil or not? Nobody knows any more than anybody else.