Replies to post #7171 on Addax Petroleum (fka AXC)

[Manti]

I personally would be thrilled with the earlier offering of .07's pre-split price...

[Strategyone]

Tryoty,

This was a fantastic post. Great level headed arguments.

This is a classic and all too true comment: "It will be priced somewhere between optimism and greed. Pick you own numbers".

I am fairly optimistic about the post drilling market cap and the lead up to it. I probably don't go as high as your $200 million only because of current oil prices.

I think Russia will do something unexpected to break the Saudi's oil play that created this oil price crash in the first place. It will happen, I just don't know when or what they will do. What is ironic is that Russia could actually turn off their own drilling short term to flip the supply side back down to under the demand side. It won't take long for prices to rebound pretty rapidly and they can ease their supply back into the market at the higher prices. Prices can not stay down below the cost of extracting the oil for very long and that is where we are currently at. I am happy to pay under $2 a gallon for gas now but my stock holdings will more than offset the difference when we are back to $4.

If something happens in the next 3 - 6 months, it may coincide nicely with a discovery from CEPSA/ERHE in Kenya and $200 million would be a low ball offer.

Time will tell. Thanks for contributing.

[Julius Erving]

You are right: we almost forget that *fundamentally* we are better of than in the beginning of 2014:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ERHE+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true}

What glut oil and convertible notes can do for a company...

If we look a bit further back, I would say these levels are still possible, if glut oil is gone and funding ok.