NG is a manipulation play, NG ran up on the anticipation of cold wx, then they retraced it by changing the cold forecast for last week Jan first week Feb to mild. The wx has actually been getting colder not warmer. Once NG retraced the forecast is back to colder. From the 19th
U.S. gas futures bounce off 3-week low as forecasts turn colder
CommoditiesJan 19, 2016 08:54AM ET
© Reuters. U.S. natural gas futures rise as forecasts turn colder© Reuters. U.S. natural gas futures rise as forecasts turn colder
Investing.com - U.S. natural gas futures bounced off a three-week low on Tuesday, as updated weather forecasting models pointed to seasonably cold weather through the end of January, lifting near-term demand expectations for the heating fuel.
Bullish speculators are betting on the cold weather to increase winter demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.
Natural gas for delivery in February on the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on 3.9 cents, or 1.88%, to trade at $2.139 per million British thermal units by 13:55 GMT, or 8:55AM ET.
A day earlier, natural gas futures fell to $2.044, a level not seen since December 24, as forecasts calling for less cold weather over the next two weeks weighed.
Natural gas in storage in the U.S. fell by 168 billion cubic feet last week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, below expectations for a decline of 178 billion. That compared with a drawdown of 113 billion cubic feet in the prior week, while the five-year average change for the week is a withdrawal of 178 billion cubic feet.
Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.475 trillion cubic feet, 16.9% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 13.7% above the five-year average for this time of year.
The EIA's next storage report slated for release on Thursday, January 21 is expected to show a withdrawal of approximately 150 billion cubic feet for the week ending January 15.
Inventories fell 217 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average change for the week is a drawdown of 160 billion cubic feet.
Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for delivery in March inched up 37 cents, or 1.2%, to trade at $30.76 a barrel, while heating oil for February delivery shed 0.43% to trade at $0.9303 per gallon.
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The focus still is 100% on wx, withdrawl and storage levels. The underlying changes occurring in exploration of oil rig cts production cuts and the effect on NG supply hasn't become glaringly obvious yet. Well know thats the case when we hear and see the words NG shortage
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