I like the analysis except for the, "symbiotic relationship between the hedge funds and shorts along with the MM's in engineering (not to use the term manipulation as that sounds negative) so that the pps is held down while accumulation is going on." There are much better stocks for the hedge funds to accumulate than Ariad. Araid doesn't have any sizzle. I just don't believe in conspiracy theories for a company like Ariad. Damaged goods..
Your post mirrors my own thoughts about the company and was the best post here in a very long time. The sp has indeed been held down for the exact reasons you stated but at some point that will end. I have been here much longer than you but we have reached exactly the same conclusions. Well stated and look forward to hearing from you again soon.
Please explain the valuation by component that gets us $20-$30 pps in a buyout. Note, that's about a $4B to $6B mkt cap range at those pps. What revs do you see for the drugs say in 4 years time?