This is going to be "one of those posts" that will piss people off, but I guess I don't care. I hate travelling with the herd...
This post called for a breakdown, but it was actually very close to the bottom... there were posts like this one expressing concern just about everywhere last summer about the "current unstable global political situation, high oil price and keep increasing interest rate" ... okay, sell then and you missed the big rally in the indices the last half of last year....
So here we are today... overbought, and everyone and their grandmother wants to call THE TOP... "can't you see it??" "Only a moron can't see it..."
It seems like on any given day, a trader can see a glass half empty or half full... markets get overbought and oversold. This happens in MANY time frames. (Some of the biggest arguments on iHub are traders with different time horizons misunderstanding one anothers' posts, but I digress)
So what causes a pullback in an overbought market? How long can a market remain overbought? The answer? There isn't one.
Everyone wants to guess using some oscillator, some tool, some black box, and be a hero for calling THE top. Isn't the bulk of money to be made is in the trend, not in reading some super crystal ball nailing an exact top or bottom??? How come nobody posts about when it's time to sit on one's hands and not trade???
If you all are seeing some confirmation of a trend chage, I'd like to see that. What I see since December is a GRINDING TRENDLESS MARKET... we go up a little we go down a little -- once sector recovers while another cools off -- we are in a trading range.... Does anyone see something different???
There could just as easily be an overthrust and a parabolic move in 2007 as there could be some dramatic January breakdown that so many people are desperate to see happen -- because they got all growly first of January and are stuck.
In fact, it seems like everyone -- bulls and bears alike -- is desperate for some kind of move because we are bored shitless with the grind up here and are afraid to go long and have been burned by selling at the breakdown point so may times that we won't do it again...
All that crap being said, I come back to my market thesis that overrides all theses:
"THIS IS THE MARKET OF THE FAILED BREAKOUT"
We saw it with oil
We saw it with gold
We saw it with nat gas
We see it every few days. Pick a chart. Any chart!
So isn't the point for TRADERS that this is the market to SELL the breakout?? Make the trade. If you get reversion to the mean, take profits. Take the trade.
We are in a channel and computers are swapping shares taking advantage of it. Isn't that The Real Deal??? lol
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
