The vast majority of Americans in pain, have tried the homeopathic stuff to no avail. Yes, they do have expensive pain blockers, but as you point out they are very expensive and not what the general public wants (as opposed to popping a few pills vs. regular dr. visits).
Thing is--who is running the real show? The money is not with the pharma companies or doctors, but ultimately the insurance carriers...who also eat the costs associated with overdoses, rehab clinic treatment for addiction, paying for expensive neural blocks (and in many cases, carry the life insurance policies of those that died from overdoses...they are not happening to street junkies, but soccer moms and the like. As a current patient who uses some opioids for back pain, I can tell you first hand my doctor hates having to re-write my prescription of hydrocodone once a month, where before could write scripts that were refillable for six months (though no opioid helped my back stress as much as leaving my last job--in flying technicolors, lol!). He's overwhelmed by it...he also loved the solution of ELTP, and thought if it worked, may lead back to the 6-month refills again (though he was not interested in the "investment" part...and I wasn't pitching it as such).
The way I understand NH's plan is to market the generic at the same prices as non-generics, so essentially will be substitute products at the same price. Insurance companies also get discounts, as you know, as well as some co-pay. The docs just want something that will make their own lives easier, and patients safer, hence the ADT preference.
I don't guess at sp's. Said so before, and won't counter yours. But, the value of a company that has the capability to churn out another 12 ADT's in the same manner in the pain market...2 billion is a pittance for a big pharma, even 4 billion; and they also have their own market share to protect. Buyouts are not contingent on "baggers" but present and future valuations, which has likely been done in detail with the opioid market. For your reference, N2K (a very credible poster on this board, unfortunately a bit slow on the draw right now per messages but back in action now, gave a great description of enterprise value in the estimation of buyout prices that you should find; it was very clearly put and worth a read...though was a while back). If you didn't know of the poison pill, you're obviously new and should do more dd. It's good to have you aboard! IMO, you should really check out some of the DD Couch and others have put up, especially on the top of this page. An approval of the first ADT will increase the value of this company exponentially, IMHO.
Personally, I lean toward conservative estimates, but I don't quite think you quite know the magnitude of potential this stock holds from your post.
GLTY and welcome,
Maz
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