Replies to post #1175 on Alpha Natural Resources, Inc.(fka ANRZQ)

[MattySR]

I would be pretty excited if the court granted the motion directing the appointment for an official equity committee. The equity committee motion has some solid information that warrants the judge to AT LEAST consider an equity committee.

I expect the judge to either A) move the hearing to the next court date allowing more of an evidentiary type hearing, or B) pass the equity committee outright. Depends on if we see any objections from the debtors or from its creditors, and how much substance is in these objections.

The hearing is set for December 17. Objections will come in the next 2 weeks. Pay close attention to the objections (if there are any)

1.7 billion in Stockholders Equity alone warrants an equity committee. Does not mean that at the end of the day shareholders will walk away with 1.7 billion, but it does mean that an Equity Committee will fight to bring back equity to shareholders. IMO.

Past courts have granted an Equity Committee to represent shareholders in the bankruptcy case by factors such as:

A) # of Shareholders
B) Adequacy of current representation
C) Likelihood of shareholders receiving value in a Plan of Reorganization balanced with the cost of lawyer fees associated with the committee (Committees are paid by the Debtors) , and
D) Debtors' solvency

All of these can be argued one way or another, except A, 5000+ shareholders on petition date. the moving shareholders will have to orally argue their point across. Hence why I say to pay attention to any objections the Debtors or creditors put out in the next 2 weeks before the hearing (if they do) . The moving shareholders motion has some solid points / claims.

So if an Equity Committee is granted, I would be excited for the future of bankrupt ANR holders. This is short term aka in the next 2 weeks. If the motion is denied, then I won't be able to give you a clear answer until 6-8 months once we know more about the coal markets and how they are in 2016.

In either cases though, for it to look very promising, we will need a coal uptrend.