Replies to post #26411 on Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 11/24 2015 EOD

This week's stuff may be affected by the holiday-interrupted trading week behavior, especially the lower volume.

Today we got a PR stating NASDAQ deemed $CPST was in compliance with listing rules. AFAICT there was no effect on trading as we had a typical open high and drop, although not a plummet (maybe that was an effect?), until almost noon, which was followed by a low-volume recovery of about 1/3rd of the drop from the high and then a very long flattish period from 12:18 to the close.

There were no pre-market trades.

Trading opened with a small sell of 1,360 shares at $1.82 followed by mostly no/low-volume wide spread trading $1.81/6 but for a 9:59 5.1K $1.83->$1.87 minute. Trading then was mostly zero volume until the period end at 10:17 with no trades the last thirteen minutes and ended at $1.85. 10:18-11:30 (no trades last nine minute) began with ~1.9K taking price to $1.81 followed by some zero/medium-volume steps down through 10:25 dropping price to $1.79 followed by three of the next four minutes being high volume $1.79/$1.81. Then a no/low-volume climbed back to $1.84 by 10:37 and a long zero and very low-volume $1.81/$1.84 ensued, but for a couple volume blips 11:05/:07. Most minutes were zero-volume minutes and we ended at $1.81. 11:31-11:53 began with ~3.1K taking price to $1.79 and began no/low-volume $1.79/$1.81 trading and ended at $1.80. 11:54-12:09 (no trades last two minutes) began with a two-minute ~10.9K drop to $1.75, traded zero in the next minute and then came with ~9,5K doing $1.75/8 and began low-volume $1.76/8, ending the period at $1.77. 12:10-15:20 (no trades last minute) began with 11.4K $1.76/80 beginning a series of low and medium-volume steps up to $1.80 by 12:18 and began no/low-volume (mostly no) $1.79/80 trading. There was a 6.1K $1.79/80 13:14 minute to break the monotony before ending the period at $1.79. 15:21-15:48 the only difference from the prior period and the beginning of this period was volume moved to mostly medium/high-volume while continuing the $1.79/80 range until 15:33 when volume switched to low/medium, ending at $1.79/80. 15:49-16:00 tried to begin the normal EOD volatility with a ~7.8K drop $1.79->$1.77 but couldn't muster the energy. Price immediately came back up to $1.78/9 on medium volume tailing off to low volume until end of period and day when we closed with a very small 290 share unknown for $1.79.

There were no AH trades.

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify) there were XXX larger trades (>=5K) totaling ...

 Ending  Period  Period  Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  10:04   12916 $1.8148 $1.8800  $23,899.87 $1.8504  8.60% 61.44% Incl 09:59 $1.8699 5,000 
  10:29   12290 $1.7900 $1.8340  $22,190.18 $1.8055  8.18% 38.84% 
  11:21    6797 $1.8060 $1.8500  $12,394.41 $1.8235  4.52% 40.68% 
  11:53    5299 $1.7800 $1.8100   $9,499.20 $1.7926  3.53% 35.91% 
  12:08   24289 $1.7500 $1.7800  $42,788.79 $1.7617 16.16% 36.70% 
  15:19   48346 $1.7600 $1.8000  $86,760.62 $1.7946 32.17% 35.61% Incl 12:10 $1.7999 8,200 
  15:48   22025 $1.7900 $1.8000  $39,561.71 $1.7962 14.66% 36.36% 
  16:00   14456 $1.7700 $1.7999  $25,823.70 $1.7864  9.62% 36.49%

On the traditional TA front, movements of the open, low, high, close and volume were 1.68%, 0.00%, -1.05%, -2.72%, and -35.82% respectively vs. yesterday's -6.28%, -0.57%, -2.06%, 2.22%, and -19.39% respectively. These other than the close, these show some improvement. However traditionally the acceleration of the volume to the down side on a lower close would be seen as a harbinger of "good" suggesting bottoming (been here before though!). On the non-traditional side our VWAP change (see below) is larger than I would like to see though.

Temper these thoughts, all around, with the possibility of holiday-week effects.

On my minimal chart we traded almost exactly centered on the resistance of the new short-term descending wedge I identified. I mentioned { Our time within the wedge isn't where we normally expect a break out but it's such a narrow wedge that an early break wouldn't surprise me. } With the low volume and trading centered on that resistance line, I suspect tomorrow will see a break above (most likely, IMO, with today's NASDAQ listing news) or below and back into the descending wedge. If we take this latter action I think we also break the descending support in very short order.

Good news! We closed above the descending wedge's resistance today! If we do it again we have a confirmation that the descending wedge is not in control. How much is holiday-induced I can't say but this broke a bit sooner than expected, if it confirms.

On my one-year chart the price again made a small gap above the long-term descending channel support. But it was much smaller, so I guess the best assessment is that we are still "riding" it lower.

The oscillators I watch have gone mixed, indicating indecision or just differences in methodology? Weakening were RSI, accumulation/distribution, Williams %R, and momentum. Improvement was seen in MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic and ADX-related, but only marginally. Everything is still oversold or below neutral.

The 13-period Bollinger showed a small change. Although the mid-point is still moving down to find price, there's disagreement between the upper and lower limits as the lower limit has begun to rise, leading to a reduction of the band width. Since we are much closer to the lower limit there's a possibility it might "push" us up. But the upper limit is descending much more rapidly than the lower limit is rising, so maybe no chance of that.

In aggregate, cautious optimism could be warranted but for the uncertainty of the holiday effects. Further, still no trend in improvement - just spotty better/worse movements.



Yesterday I said { Percentages for daily short sales and buys went in the same direction but are both well below where I think they should be to indicate positive price movements in the cards. If the MMs were short-term long and exited there yesterday we could see weakness today [tomorrow - another temporal shift]. } I also said { Price-spread contracted some and was the result of up, rather than down, behavior. Since we're in a down trend again, for sure, it's wide enough to be of concern though, although it's much less certain at this value and on a day with a better VWAP and volume. }

VWAP dropped almost 3% today.

Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction and short percentage went to the top of my desired range (needs re-check) while buys remain too low to suggest any upward movement near-term.

The price spread narrowed a bit and, in conjunction with a close above the descending short-term wedge resistance, we might look for a "stop in drop" of price tomorrow (no temporal shift today!).

Continued reduction in volume still suggests bottoming, but note we've been fooled by this before.

All in, I'm still awaiting a positive trend development.

As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.

Bill