ARM have been completely ridiculous for suggesting these ridiculous 20-25% marketshare figures for many years now
Shipments not market share so it could include a lot of very cheap stuff. And I'm not certain what exactly they're including. I'm pretty sure they include storage servers - but do they include server networking for instance? But yes I can't see how they can get anywhere near that in five years. Server procurement is definitely not impulse buying!
They are inferior in performance and performance/power and if they have any advantages in performance/price no-one is interested in the absolute difference in cost.
That is all important but the ultimate roadblock is software.
The vicious chicken and egg question of getting an installed base for a server architecture without software simultaneously with trying to get ISVs to create software versions for a server architecture without an installed base.
This held Alpha back in its day and suppressed uptake of Itanium.
ARM server pom-pom shakers seem to think that once you got Linux and gcc support for ARM64 then Bob's your uncle.
Someone has to make a $10B bet over 5 years that the world needs ARM servers and provide 1000's of free boxes to many ISVs and PAY them millions to create and market ARM versions of their applications. Even then it would at best establish an ARM64 software base a tiny, tiny fraction of x86's.
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