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Replies to post #215 on Seabridge Gold Inc. (SA)
Seabridge Gold
However, we have begun to see something very interesting happen over the past few weeks. The stocks of our resource
related businesses have started to move higher at a much more rapid pace than the underlying commodities with which
they are involved.
I find this to be encouraging because I had been told by Seabridge’s CEO, Rudi Fronk, to expect a
recovery in share prices to lead a recovery in the actual underlying commodity prices.
Speaking of Seabridge Gold, the news has been good, better and excellent. When I saw the initial results of the first holes
from the 2015 drilling program, I was so shocked I called Mr. Fronk to ask if I was reading them correctly. They appeared
to be THAT good to me. Rudi’s response to me was: “These results are nothing short of spectacular!”
While the share price did not explode higher on this news, it did seem to put a floor under the stock price. Since that time,
the share price has caught fire and actually peaked at just over $9.50/share before weak gold prices and some profit taking
in the market pushed it back down to $8.17 on Friday.
Our original position in SA, which we have been holding since the beginning of Maggie’s Money Mountain has produced
an annualized return of 7.7% over the life of the holding and our second tranche of shares has produced an annualized
return of 13.91% since we acquired those shares.
We expect the misguided policies of the U.S. government to ignite inflation and ultimately destroy the real value of the
U.S. dollar. In our view, owning gold and copper in the ground is an excellent way to hedge against this outcome.
We continue to rate Seabridge Gold (SA) as a STRONG BUY up to $10.00/share. We also maintain our longterm
target price range on the stock at $45.00 to $84.00/share.
We believe the current price represents an excellent point at which to open a position for any readers who do not currently
have one.
U
Seabridge Gold (SA)
Seabridge Gold continues to be the stock I love that the market loves to hate. I hope everyone has had an opportunity to
listen to our latest interview with the CEO, Rudi Fronk, that we conducted a few weeks ago. We always like to speak to
Rudi as he tends to be one of the most accessible and candid CEOs to whom I have ever spoken.
The drilling program this year will continue to expand the resources on the property with the higher grades that have been
discovered at Deep Kerr and the new copper being found is changing the overall project metrics from what was a gold
discovery to one that is now attracting the attention of the major base material miners around the world.
Other than the brutal bear market in gold, copper and silver prices that we have experienced over the last 4 years, there is
no reason for Seabridge’s share price not to be much higher than where it sits today. During its recent collapse to under
$4.00/share, I was adding to my personal holdings in the stock. We continue to believe this is one of the best
opportunities in the market today in terms of the reward/risk ratio and we believe the business is currently valued at a
ridiculously low price.
We currently rate SEABRIDGE GOLD as a STRONG BUY up to $10.00/share. We also maintain our longterm
target price range on the stock at $45.00 to $84.00/share.
Today we entered and executed an order to buy to open (50) call options
covering 5,000 shares of Seabridge Gold (SA) with a strike price
of $5.00, an expiration of January 20, 2017 and a limit price of
$0.90/share. We paid a total premium of $4,545.45 or
$0.90909/share. Buying these option contracts give us the right, but not the obligation, to purchase up to 5,000 shares of Seabridge Gold stock in 100 share lots for
$5.00/share at any time between now and January 20, 2017.
Including the premium paid for these options with the $5.00 strike price gives us a
break-even point of $5.91/share on the trade. Any amount Seabridge’s share price rises
above $5.91 will represent a profit on the trade of approximately 1.1% for every $0.01
above $5.91 the stock rises.
If Seabridge Gold simply returns to equal its previous 52-week high price of $11.64, our
options will be worth at least $6.64 and we will have a minimum profit of $5.73/share,
or 529% on our $0.91 purchase price. This outcome would turn our $4,545.45
investment into $28,650.00.
If by some chance, the stock were to reach the lower end of my current fair value
estimate of $45/share for the stock, our profit would be 39.09/share or 4,295% on our
$0.91/share investment used to purchase these options. This highly unlikely outcome
would turn our $4,545.45 investment into $195,450.00!
These kinds of numbers are the reason that so many people are willing to gamble buying
options. Our downside risk here is that SA stock will continue to languish over the next
18 months and we will lose our capital. However, I am willing to make this very
speculative investment because of the knowledge I have of Seabridge Gold and their
management and properties. Also, my firm belief that the price of gold is artificially low
at this time, reinforces my confidence in higher prices for shares of SA in the near,
intermediate and long-term.
This sort of position should only be opened with money you can easily afford to lose. It
is not the type of position I will take very often as I do not normally enter positions
where I know there is a real possibility of 100% loss. Having said that, I don’t often
come across opportunities where I believe I have a legitimate shot at a 1,000% return
either and a share price of $14.91 would produce that return in this case and deliver it in
18 months.
Best regards and better profits,
Ken
