Replies to post #146103 on Momentum Players

[Sportsjunkie]

does anybody ever read someone post history before they
think that posting someone as a basher makes themselves look better..
the fact that he is mentioning that the season did not get off to the start people had expected does not make him a basher,but a poster who is keeping himself informed on the
actual hurricane season...

[Deewar25]

Read for yourself....he is very good with his analysis as I've followed his blog for a few years now. I don't even have a margin account and can't short....most people here aren't interested in jumping in the hurricane plays if nothing is going to happen until late August - that is too far ahead for the typical daytrader. Buy now and you'll do fine by October, but what I'm saying is hold off and buy cheaper in late July instead of dead money for a month!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=397&tstamp=200606

Outlook for July 2006
The two-week forecast from the GFS model continues to show the jet stream dipping over the Eastern U.S., and a stronger than normal Bermuda High. This pattern favors a continuation of the cool, rainy weather over the Northeast U.S., and hurricane strikes on Florida and the East Coast of the U.S.--or recurvature out to sea. The Gulf Coast has lower than average odds of a strike. This jet stream pattern should act to keep wind shear high over the main breeding grounds for July tropical cyclones--the Gulf of Mexico, Bahamas, and western Caribbean. If a hurricane does manage to develop and dodge the shear, it is unlikely it will become a major hurricane, due to the relatively cool ocean waters expected this July, compared to July 2005. Thus, July 2006 will not be a repeat of July 2005, which had five named storms, three hurricanes, and two intense hurricanes. If the current upper-level jet stream pattern holds in place, I think we can expect one or two named storms in July, one of them being a hurricane (not major). Will the current jet stream pattern hold? We are not very good at anticipating when these "blocking patterns" in the large scale atmospheric flow will change. Sometimes they can last for an entire season. If the pattern breaks in the last half of July, we could see more activity than I am forecasting here. In any case, I am still anticipating that August and September will be very busy again this year, so enjoy the relatively quiet start to hurricane season!