Replies to post #30904 on Biotech Values

[rkrw]

That's the risk vrtx is running by keeping US rights and paying 50% of development costs.

Answer is we should know after the phase IIB :-) Efficacy is eye popping, tox on the other hand...tbd

I'm not invested in vrtx btw, too rich for me. I wouldn't be surprised if 950 blows up but I hope it works out, would be very cool and one of the few true biotech breakthrough drugs.

[DewDiligence]

>what are the chances the vrtx hcv candidate [VX-950] may run into "issues" given how far down the road they are in their trial.<

Low chance, IMO. One risk, which applies more strongly in the real world than in a clinical study, is that patients will not adhere to the thrice-daily dosing schedule with the required degree of obsession. Given the short intracellular half-life of VX-950, missing doses could lead to the generation of resistant HCV strains. This risk will probably increase to some degree if VX-950 is being used in a regimen that does not include ribavirin or another direct antiviral.

>what are the chances the idenix hcv candidate [NM283] may run into "issues" given how far down the road they are in their trial.<

Medium risk in the treatment-naïve setting, and high risk in the treatment-refractory setting, IMO. The reason for this disparity is that the 200mg once-daily dose seems to be sufficient to reduce viral load in the treatment-naïve setting, but it is not enough to reduce viral load in the treatment-refractory setting. Doses higher than 200mg/day may be problematic due to GI side effects. Regards, Dew

p.s. Please note that IDIX’s lead drug is the one for HBV (Telbivudine), not the one for HCV (NM283).