ORT / EORBF - I was sorry to hear of the delay (yet another delay!) on Orbite's opening its HPA (high purity alumina) plant in Cap Chat, caused by that problem with the contractor. I'm going to assume that Orbite does finally get the plant running in late Jan or Feb., given that until recently they were "very confident" it would be running before the end of 2015.
I haven't been in this stock since selling over two years ago.
I was reading the transcript of the last earnings call in Nov. and noted that the analysts were really positive about Orbite's securing that last financing deal and CEO Glen Kelly was speaking to one analyst, confirming that they could do 1,000 tons of HPA at 3 tons per day, estimating 93% operating time through the year (subtractions for expected maintenance etc).
1,000 tons at the expected $20k - $30k sales price (Kelly expects lower end at first, upper end later--not sure how much later?) would bring in $20M - $30M year.
The big Q is how soon they will ramp up to 3 tons per day.
Any thoughts?
With this delay, I'm assuming that they don't get up to 3tpd of HPA until May or June, but maybe start doing 1tpd by, say, March 1.
So i'm guesstimating they might optimally produce 600 tons in 2016, at $20k/ton that would be $12M in revenues for 2016.....
Kelly was also talking about 50% margins (i assume those are gross margins).... so maybe, with 31M shares outstanding (is that # still accurate?) they could clear $2M in net income for 2016? ... with an expected big jump in 2017? (not to mention monetizing that waste remediation segment, e.g., red mud).
In your opinion, am i anywhere close to reality with these numbers here?
I still won't invest until i see that HPA plant up and running, even if i have to chase the stock higher.... I was already burned too badly on this one.
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