IMHO, there is a lot going on behind the scenes and most likely there are companies "in the know" that are bidding based on the likelihood of one or more of the drugs being winners. They know a lot more than we do about the true "value" and therefore don't want to lose the deal vs overpaying. We have to look at it like they are from a cost/benefit point of view which is time/expense to develop a drug (s),getting to market and using the synergy of their own products/distribution to maximize return.
It is hard to sit and watch and theorize (certainly that is what I am doing with this post) yet trying to base our opinions on the most likely outcome. I do know that Denner did not invest for almost 2 years now in something that is a mere 2X - 4X winner. That is not what they (hedge funds) do in being successful with a lot of eggs in one basket..i.e. Ariad. He knows how to wait and posture to maximize return. For me there is no doubt with that in reading the current tea leaves and the trail of what has happened and perhaps more importantly what has not happened (lack of PR's, lack of a visible search for a CEO, shorts, stock price being manipulated short term, etc). Like I wrote at the beginning, IMHO
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