Replies to post #4442 on °¿°

[Myself °¿°]

considering an oversold UGAZ scalp @ /ng 2.21

[Myself °¿°]

Wrong direction from the start. Cancle_previous_thought. /NG_should_fall_deeper. Waiting_for_DGAZ

[Myself °¿°]

Natural Gas Slips on Weather Outlook
Moderate temperatures at this time of year reduce demand for natural gas as an indoor-heating fuel
By NICOLE FRIEDMAN
Nov. 2, 2015 10:59 a.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-slips-on-weather-outlook-1446479961
NEW YORK--Natural gas futures dropped Monday on continued expectations for weak demand, as warmer-than-normal weather is expected to persist.

Natural gas futures recently fell 5.8 cents, or 2.5%, to $2.263 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Moderate temperatures at this time of year reduce demand for natural gas as an indoor-heating fuel. Above-normal weather is expected to continue in the next 11 to 15 days.

Current weather forecasts are calling for “about 75 to 80% of the U.S. to experience above-normal temperatures thought the middle of November,” which is “decidedly bearish for nat gas heating-related demand,” said Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the Energy Management Institute.

Prices could fall further as mild weather persists, said Andy Weissman, chief executive of EBW AnalyticsGroup, in a note.

“With available storage rapidly diminishing and space heating demand potentially declining week-over-week, cash prices are likely to decline further,” Mr. Weissman said. However, he added, “space heating demand will start to rise by mid-November, slowing the decline.”

Production remains robust, even as companies have cut spending, as drilling has gotten more efficient. Natural gas production rose to a new record high in August, the Energy Information Administration said Friday.

Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $1.915/mmBtu, compared with Friday’s range of $1.87-$2.05. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $1.50/mmBtu, compared with Friday’s range of $1.25-$1.75.

Write to Nicole Friedman at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

Natural Gas Futures Gain... see bold
Traders look past forecasts for warmer-than-average temperatures in the next two weeks
By NICOLE FRIEDMAN
Nov. 3, 2015 10:43 a.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-futures-gain-1446565384
NEW YORK--Natural gas prices rose Tuesday as traders looked past forecasts for warmer-than-average temperatures in the next two weeks.

Futures for December delivery recently rose 1.9 cents, or 0.8%, to $2.275 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Natural-gas prices have slumped in recent sessions as weather forecasts have called for above-normal temperatures to extend into mid-November, which is expected to reduce demand for natural gas as an indoor-heating fuel. Some traders worry that low consumption could push inventories of natural gas to record highs in the coming weeks.

However, heating demand is expected to increase later in December.

“The December futures are still being forced to price in some possible cold trends during the second half of this month,” said energy-advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates in a note.

In addition, the firm said, Tuesday’s price gain suggests that traders are unwilling to bet that prices can fall even lower.

“Although the overnight price upswing of only around two-to-three cents thus far is modest, it appears to be serving notice that speculative and commercial selling is drying up at these sharply lower levels,” Ritterbusch & Associates said.

Frank Clements of Meridian Energy Brokers said in a note that he expects prices to hold between $2.10 and $2.40/mmBtu. “Despite the warm weather, the market is precariously holding firm,” he said.

Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $1.94/mmBtu, compared with Monday’s range of $1.895-$1.95. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $1.27/mmBtu, compared with Monday’s range of $1.38-$1.62.

Write to Nicole Friedman at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

EXT LMT order for DGAZ @ 12.41

[Myself °¿°]

~In DGAZ @ 12.41 if all goes well /ng will turn down well before regular hrs trading

[Myself °¿°]

~Out DGAZ @ 12.50 I didn't like how DGAZ snapped back down just before market open.
I could have had 3 times the gains in premarket and I missed the mark by more than a penny.
I don't want to watch my gains slip away in regular hrs trading and be in the negative

[Myself °¿°]

*Evaporated reasons to short /ng...
On 10/30/15 an oversold bounce occured.
Note the white candle with wicks and a closing price of (2.305)
For 2 days it opened below (2.305) and did not verify the reversal until today.
*Thinkorswim showed an open of 2.309 thus verifying the danger of holding short.
This chart will update at the end of day and will be a static chart from then on.


Static chart showing the open, high, low and close for the 30th of October.
Note the close price (2.305)



*Thinkorswim showed an open of 2.309 thus verifying the danger of holding short.
This is what it looked like when I took the dgaz position in /ng premarket trading.
It seemed all too convenient to see the /ng (2.309) mark get tagged and back off twice in futures premarket trading. So I placed my order and was *run over by +/- a dime.
*Because thinkorswim printed a /ng 2.309 as it was falling from premarket to regulare hours futures trading, I continue to belive shorting now is too hazardous.
*Allthough it maybe 70 in Chicago today a cold snap is traveling across the states. I have frost on the pickup this am with another system rolling down from Alaska.
I'll take a look at dgaz again in the 11's or lower.
~In DGAZ @ 12.41
~Out DGAZ @ 12.50 all before equity market regular trading hrs (grey section of the DGAZ chart)

[Myself °¿°]

See bold Yesterday's news: Natural gas futures rise 2% with storage report in focus
Nov 04, 2015 09:40AM ET
http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/natural-gas-futures-rise-2-with-storage-report-in-focus-369661
Investing.com - U.S. natural gas futures rose for the first time in three days on Wednesday, as market participants looked ahead to fresh weekly information on U.S. gas inventories to gauge the strength of demand for the fuel.
Natural gas for delivery in December on the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on 4.2 cents, or 1.84%, to trade at $2.295 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning hours.
A day earlier, natural gas prices lost 0.3 cents, or 0.13%, as forecasts pointed to unseasonably warm readings for early November. Bearish speculators bet on the warm weather reducing early-winter demand for the heating fuel.
Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on early-winter heating demand.
The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's next storage report on Thursday is expected to show a build of approximately 60 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 30.
That compares with builds of 63 billion cubic feet in the prior week, 91 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average change for the week is an increase of 68 billion cubic feet.
Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.877 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 4.1% above the five-year average for this time of year and 12% above their level at this time a year ago.
Last spring, supplies were 55% below the five-year average, indicating producers have more than made up for all of last winter’s unusually strong demand.
Stockpiles are set to reach a record by the end of this month. The EIA sees storage levels peaking at 3.956 trillion in November, which would top the November 2012 high of 3.929 trillion.
The North American natural-gas market has been mired in a supply glut for years amid robust output.
Industry research group Baker Hughes (N:BHI) said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the U.S. increased by four last week to 197. Natural gas traders closely watch the rig count to gauge future supply growth.
Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for delivery in December shed 21 cents, or 0.44%, to trade at $47.69 a barrel, while heating oil for December delivery eased up 0.04% to trade at $1.566 per gallon.

[Myself °¿°]

U.S. Natural Gas Storage/Inventory Forecast...
Well thats interesting... they are not posting the forcast
I did find a guess in yesterdays news though (60B)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118259463

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	 
 Nov 05, 2015	10:30	??B 	??B 	        63B	 
 Oct 29, 2015	09:30	63B	69B	        81B	 
 Oct 22, 2015	09:30	81B	88B	        100B	 
 Oct 15, 2015	09:30	100B	93B	        95B	 
 Oct 08, 2015	09:30	95B	98B	        98B	 
 Oct 01, 2015	09:30	98B	100B	        106B

[Myself °¿°]

U.S. Natural Gas Storage/Inventory... Forecast... There_it_is!
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	 
 Nov 05, 2015	10:30	??B 	60B	        63B	 
 Oct 29, 2015	09:30	63B	69B	        81B	 
 Oct 22, 2015	09:30	81B	88B	        100B	 
 Oct 15, 2015	09:30	100B	93B	        95B	 
 Oct 08, 2015	09:30	95B	98B	        98B	 
 Oct 01, 2015	09:30	98B	100B	        106B

[Myself °¿°]

180hr jet stream forecast shows buy natgas weakness...
near the end of the animated loop you can see it falling from the north into the states.
...more importantly, the mid to eastern part of the states.

Weather Model - Global Jet Stream Wind and 250 mb Pressure
See this one animated link http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=glob_250

[Myself °¿°]

*A super system is currently forming north of the Alutian Chain, Alaska
...and should sweep south and east as part of the **previously mentioned post.

* A super system is currently forming north of the Alutian Chain, Alaska
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-148.99,59.57,300
You can tip and rotate the globe with your mouse

** http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118265174
180hr jet stream forecast shows buy natgas weakness...
near the end of the animated loop you can see it falling from the north into the states.
...more importantly, the mid to eastern part of the states.
Weather Model - Global Jet Stream Wind and 250 mb Pressure
See this one animated link http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=glob_250

[Myself °¿°]

See italic and bold italic: Natural Gas Rises as Storage Addition Falls Below Expectations
Data show smaller-than-expected storage rise; hopes raised for rally
By TIMOTHY PUKO
Updated Nov. 5, 2015 11:04 a.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-rises-as-bottom-seekers-pounce-1446737489
Natural gas futures added to gains after data showed a smaller-than-expected addition to storage and raised hopes for a rally.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said producers added 52 billion cubic feet of natural gas to storage in the week ended Oct. 30. That is 6 bcf less than the average forecast of 17 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

The weekly report is looked to as a leading indicator of supply and demand. A lower-than-expected addition would suggest that supply was smaller or demand was larger than expectations.

Futures for December delivery recently traded up 6.8 cents, or 3%, at $2.33/mmBtu on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

“I’m encouraged by the fact that a number came out and surprised people,” said John Woods, a Nymex trader who called himself the last bull in the gas market. “If that doesn’t make you think (a rally is possible) then what will?”

Natural gas has foundered in recent weeks with money managers moving into a near-record bearish position. Front-month prices have plummeted from near $3/mmBtu in August all the way down to nearly $2 when the November contract expired last week. The December contract had never quite fallen that far and has held close to the $2.30/mmBtu level it was at when it became the front-month contract.

That plateau has some traders that move based on charts and momentum thinking that the collapse has ended, at least for now. Many will close out bearish positions in response, which means buying back contracts and bidding up prices, brokers and analysts said.

While Thursday’s data gives the market some support, it may be limited. Inventories as of Oct. 30 surpassed 3.9 trillion cubic feet, 10% above levels from a year ago and 3.9% above the five-year average for the same week.

The high stockpiles are still nearing a record. And warm weather forecasts suggest heating demand may be limited this winter.

“Supply seems so plentiful,” said Peter Donovan, broker for Liquidity Energy LLC in New York. “Without weather, (gas) is a goner.”

Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.135/mmBtu, compared with Wednesday’s range of $2.00-$2.07. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $1.35/mmBtu, compared with Wednesday’s range of $1.34 to $1.40.

Write to Timothy Puko at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

EDIT: so where and when does the weakness come in...
...the Daily center-line of the Bolinger Bands?
...between storms?
considering a /ng short
...under dgaz 11.00
I see a gap @/ng 2.385 that didn't fill today... YET!

[Myself °¿°]

hmmm stockcharts shows no gap @2.385... I'm sure this is a thinkorswim /ng data contract rollover issue and is why I crossrefrence stockcharts.com

[Myself °¿°]

/CL Vs /NG Oil compared to Natgas crossover is getting way out of whack
so is it more likely oil will recover or natgas will come back down to the cross

I'd really like to short /ng right here and now but I don't like Friday trades
/ng shown as a purple line, price is on the left
oil price is on the right

[Myself °¿°]

more short-covering political trade: The Obama administration will reject the Keystone XL pipeline

[Myself °¿°]

ext limit order for UGAZ @3.60

[Myself °¿°]

~In UGAZ @3.60

[Myself °¿°]

~Out UGAZ @3.79 3,146 gain is toooo hard to ignore

[Myself °¿°]

I also could not ignore the +2% mark from /NG's previous close

[Myself °¿°]

edit Re: /ng 2.305...

see http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118234515

/NG 2.305 was a previous breakout line and is to be considered support now.
The problem with buying /ng at 2.305 or below now is it neeeds to close over that mark. If /ng doesn't close over 2.305 all hell's gonna break loose and head south.
And... in recent light of the previous deep break and recovery of that mark means it has been tested.
The question I ask myself is
Why is it back down here if that mark has alredy been tested?
I'm not so sure I want to buy it today and have it not recover.
In fact: If I had known it would be back down here this low (2.299) this am... I would have bought DGAZ when I sold UGAZ yesterday.
IF I was short... I would stay short now! I really didn't think it would retest this mark.
This makes it very hard for me to take any possition this am.

[Myself °¿°]

EXT_limit_order_for_a 1/2 position in DGAZ @11.50

[Myself °¿°]

U.S. Natural Gas Storage / Inventory Forecast
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	 
 Nov 13, 2015	10:30	??B 	51B	        52B	 
 Nov 05, 2015	10:30	52B	60B	        63B	 
 Oct 29, 2015	09:30	63B	69B	        81B	 
 Oct 22, 2015	09:30	81B	88B	        100B	 
 Oct 15, 2015	09:30	100B	93B	        95B	 
 Oct 08, 2015	09:30	95B	98B	        98B

[Myself °¿°]

re: NG/ @2.305/DGAZ 11.90 Premarket action...

[Myself °¿°]

Day limit order for DGAZ @11.90 1/2 position

[Myself °¿°]

~In a 1/2 position of DGAZ @12.35

[Myself °¿°]

Natural Gas Falls on Revised Inventory Data
Analysts said inventories are higher than previously reported
By NICOLE FRIEDMAN
Nov. 17, 2015 10:31 a.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-falls-on-revised-inventory-data-1447774265
NEW YORK--Natural gas prices slid Tuesday after government analysts said inventories of the fuel are higher than previously reported.

The Energy Information Administration revised its inventory data late Monday to show that natural-gas inventories rose by 54 billion cubic feet to a record high of 3.985 trillion cubic feet in the week ended Nov. 6. The revision increased the previously reported stockpile level by 7 bcf due to a change in the agency’s methodology.

The revised number increases fears that natural-gas storage facilities could run out of room to store the fuel if inventories keep growing. Mild weather has reduced demand for the heating fuel in recent weeks, leading to larger-than-average storage builds.

“Natural gas is heading substantially lower this morning in the wake of an EIA revision to U.S. natural gas inventories,” said energy-consulting firm Schneider Electric in a note.

Futures for December delivery recently fell 6.7 cents, or 2.8%, to $2.318 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In addition, forecasts released Tuesday called for slightly warmer temperatures in late November than previously expected on the East Coast, a major region for natural gas demand, according to MDA Weather Services.

“An unusually mild first half of November is limiting demand, keeping storage at high levels,” said London consulting firm Energy Aspects in a note. “For the coming winter months, the demand story still seems weak.”

Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.0125/mmBtu, compared with Monday’s range of $2.1275-$2.15. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $1.92/mmBtu, compared with Monday’s range of $2-$2.05.

Write to Nicole Friedman at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

~Added_more_to_my_short_position DGAZ cost_avg_now @11.9975791

Last Weeks Natural Gas Storage Inventory Forecast Revised up
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118554710

[Myself °¿°]

Natural Gas Keeps Falling on Inventory Revision...
Natural gas futures retreated for a second-straight session from an adjustment in federal data that show inventories are higher than previously reported.
By TIMOTHY PUKO
Nov. 18, 2015 10:38 a.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-keeps-falling-on-inventory-revision-1447861135
Natural gas futures retreated for a second-straight session from an adjustment in federal data that show inventories of the fuel are higher than previously reported.

Futures for December delivery recently traded down 1.7 cents, or 0.7%, at $2.354/mmBtu on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Energy Information Administration revised its inventory data late on Monday to show natural-gas inventories rose by 54 billion cubic feet to a record high of 3.985 trillion cubic feet in the week ended Nov. 6. The revision increased the previously reported stockpile level by 7 bcf because of a change in the agency’s methodology.

The revised number pushes stockpiles closer to the psychologically important 4 tcf mark and increases fears that natural-gas storage facilities could run out of room to store the fuel. Mild weather has reduced demand for the heating fuel in recent weeks, leading to larger-than-average storage builds.

The change is neutralizing bullish weather updates from overnight, said Frank Clements, co-owner of Meridian Energy Brokers Inc. outside New York. Many weather reports are now showing colder weather than previously expected for the second half of November, raising hopes for stronger demand for the heating fuel.

“You’re getting conflicting news,” Mr. Clements said. “The cold forecast, and all this natural gas, keeps things going sideways.”

Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.1025/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday’s range of $2.01-$2.10. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.06/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday’s range of $1.92-$2.00.

Write to Timothy Puko at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

~out DGAZ @12.08 I tapped out with a 752.34 gain

[Myself °¿°]

Natural Gas Tumbles After Stockpiles Hit New Record
Prices settle down 3% after storage levels reach unprecedented 4 trillion cubic feet
By TIMOTHY PUKO
Updated Nov. 19, 2015 3:12 p.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-falls-as-stockpiles-likely-to-grow-1447947041
Natural gas prices sank Thursday afternoon as record high stockpiles and the chance they’ll keep growing led traders to shrug off a brief rally from a smaller-than-expected weekly surplus.

Natural gas storage levels reached an unprecedented 4 trillion cubic feet last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said late Thursday morning. And weather--though it is not as mild as once expected--is warm enough that many analysts are expecting stockpile additions to continue for at least another week, two weeks beyond what is normal, said John Saucer, vice president of research and analysis at Mobius Risk Group in Houston.

“The trend is down and people are looking to sell rallies,” said Scott Gettleman, an independent trader in New York. “Mild weather, big inventories, we’re just setting up for lower.”

Prices for the front-month December contract settled down 7.1 cents, or 3%, at $2.276 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It is the largest one-day percentage decline since gas sank to a three-year low on Oct. 26. It has lost 4.6% over a three-session losing streak.

Prices had seen small gains immediately after the EIA’s data release. It showed producers added 15 billion cubic feet of natural gas to storage in the week ended Nov. 13, 2 bcf less than the average forecast from analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

Because storage levels are high, traders have been reluctant to send more gas to storage and are instead selling it immediately on the spot market, said Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at energy-consulting firm Gelber & Associates in Houston. Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana averaged $2.1463/mmBtu Thursday, more than 13 cents below the futures settlement.

As the spot market bears the brunt of the ongoing gas glut, it may reduce the buildup coming later and the pressure on futures prices, Mr. Calder added.

“We’re taking some pain now to feel less oversupplied in the future,” he said.

But that ultimately could not outweigh the fear of record supply combined with the potential tepid winter heating demand, analysts said. There is still fear that mild temperatures could extend throughout the winter in the northern U.S. and Europe because of the weather phenomenon El Nino, which analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. highlighted in their note on commodities that was sent to reporters on Thursday.


The bank forecasts higher natural gas prices, but warns that the big risks are on the downside. It sees prices at $2.50/mmBtu this quarter and averaging $2.85/mmBtu next year. But a warm winter and limited heating demand because of El Nino, and potential increases in Northeastern gas production coming next year, makes it more likely those forecasts are too high than too low, the bank’s researchers said.

Write to Timothy Puko at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

EXT_Day_Limit_order_for_UGAZ @2.97 1/2 position

[Myself °¿°]

Cancel_Replace_Order_with_EXT_Day_Limit_order_for_UGAZ @2.87 1/2 position

[Myself °¿°]

EDIT: Canceled order! Going to auto send click, tap in tap out
Level II has action @ 1.83 and I don't know what ugaz will be @ /NG 10/30 premarket low
regular trading hours (auto send)

[Myself °¿°]

~In_1/2_order_of_UGAZ @2.94 I_still_got_run_over edit:_added_print_screen
at time of trade

[Myself °¿°]

lessons learned: don't tap trade the drawing alert, hesitate to click auto send, wait for trade vehicle to adjust to /ng

[Myself °¿°]

~Tapped ot of UGAZ @2.96 I didn't like the entry fill and I'll take the 212 gain

[Myself °¿°]

Natural Gas Falls With Stockpiles and Temperatures Still High
Prices plummeting to four-week low
By TIMOTHY PUKO
Nov. 20, 2015 10:29 a.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-falls-with-stockpiles-and-temperatures-still-high-1448033397
Natural gas prices are plummeting to a four-week low as mild temperatures and record-high stockpiles continue a months-long route for the heating fuel.

Futures for December delivery recently traded down 7.7 cents, or 3.4%, at $2.199 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The fall would be the largest one-day percentage drop since prices fell to a three-year low in late October and comes on top of a 3% decline yesterday.

Weather forecasts are showing a mix of above- and below-normal temperatures, but moved sharply warmer for next week in many of the largest Midwestern and Eastern markets for gas heating. The popular U.S. weather models moved dramatically warmer overnight, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Md., though meteorologists tempered some of those predictions.

About half of U.S. homes use gas for heat, making winter cold the market’s biggest driver of demand. This year, an especially strong manifestation of the weather phenomenon El Nino has many meteorologists calling for a mild winter across the northern U.S. That has many traders expecting low natural-gas prices though the winter, especially after a warm start to autumn.

Without immediate heating demand, natural gas producers are likely to keep sending gas into storage through next week rather than drawing it out to sell for heating fuel, which is what usually happens at this time of year, analysts said. Stockpiles hit an unprecedented 4 trillion cubic feet last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said yesterday, adding to the pressure to sell.

Several bank analysts, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., are warning that prices are unlikely to rise very far in the months to come. In addition to the high storage levels, gas producers are choking back another 1 billion cubic feet of supply at wells that are already drilled and ready to produce when the price is right, according to Genscape Inc., a data provider. That likely limits how much prices can rise even when demand surges, analysts and traders have said.

“Near-term gas rally [is] unlikely given ample storage and the likelihood of incremental supply on the sidelines against a backdrop of El Nino warm-winter concerns,” energy-focused investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. said in its Friday morning note.

Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.19/mmBtu, compared with Thursday’s range of $2.105-$2.25. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.20/mmBtu, compared with Thursday’s range of $2.02-$2.15.

Write to Timothy Puko at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

tapped too slow UGAZ @2.82 now_limit_order_1/2_position

[Myself °¿°]

In 1/2 position of UGAZ @2.82 /NG_down_5.4% ....

[Myself °¿°]

~tapped_out_of_ugaz @2.82 /ng revisited_the_low_and_made_it_lower... /ng OnBalanceVolume keeps dropping off... screw it
Not very reassuring for a scalp

[Myself °¿°]

Something hokey pokey going on here I don't understand...
Both charts have a green vertical line in them to mark 10:34 Pacific Standard time.
/NG made a lower low after that time but UGAZ did not.
What am I seeing?

[Myself °¿°]

New York zip 10001 will be 65/51 Friday...

[Myself °¿°]

~In 1/2 position DGAZ 14.93

[Myself °¿°]

European Watchdog Eyes 45 Potential Cases of Energy Market Abuse
Officials say some countries haven’t put in place the authority to punish wrongdoers
Nov. 23, 2015 8:31 a.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/european-watchdog-eyes-45-potential-cases-of-energy-market-abuse-1448285498
By ALISTAIR MACDONALD

A European regulator is examining 45 potential cases of abuse in one of the world’s largest energy markets, but faces a big hurdle in pursuing them: Many countries aren’t prosecuting the alleged wrongdoing.

The Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators says it has proof that in 2014 there was market abuse in three cases in the buying and selling of natural gas and electricity in Europe, but said national authorities in countries where the breaches took place didn’t have the legal powers to pursue them.

ACER was established in 2011 as a pan-European agency to supervise energy markets—part of the European Union’s push to open them up to cross-border competition.

But ACER officials say they struggle with a lack of funding and that some countries haven’t put in place the authority to punish wrongdoers. This October, ACER began to collect and monitor its own market data, rather than rely on national regulators. But the watchdog says that its staffing level is inadequate for the mandate Brussels has given it.

“ACER expected that there would be proper enforcement,” said Alberto Pototschnig, the Director of ACER. “In each case, there was just a warning letter.”
Mr. Pototschnig declined to name the countries, companies or individuals involved.

An official said the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, sent letters in August asking 11 member states to tell them if they had given their national regulators the legal powers to prosecute abuses, an official said.

Since then, all but Estonia, Slovenia and Croatia have said they have supplied their regulators with the necessary powers. Energy ministries in those countries didn’t respond to a request for comment. The commission is checking to see if the eight countries that say they are fully in line with legislation actually are, the official said.

ACER, which is based in Slovenia, believes there are still problems.

“We are afraid that there have been delays and there are still gaps in national implementation,” said Mr. Pototschnig.

The difficulties of chasing abuse come as regulators in the U.S. and U.K. focus on commodity markets. Britain’s financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, said that commodity firms have learned little from high-profile market-abuse cases and are failing to monitor the risks of such abuse, while authorities in the U.S. are pursuing a number of alleged abuses in commodities markets.

The EU has set integrating its fractured energy markets as a priority this year. The ability to detect market abuse is a prerequisite.

“Different countries have inherently different regulators in place,” said Shaun Ledgerwood, an expert in manipulation in commodities markets at The Brattle Group, a consulting firm. “Some have the resources, for others that simply isn’t the case.”

Mr. Ledgerwood said that manipulation can push electricity and gas prices higher for consumers, or push them lower, which affects producers.

Accusations of wrongdoing aren’t new to these markets. Experts say that the lack of exchanges and the small windows of time during which energy is priced can make them ripe for abuse. But unlike other markets, few cases have been successfully prosecuted in Europe.

That is, in part, because of the markets’ fragmented nature.

As these markets become more linked, Europe wants to police them on a more regional basis. To prosecute abuses, governments have to enact laws, and the EU gave them a deadline of 2013 to do so.

Last year, 33 new cases of alleged market abuse were reported by market participants, local regulators and others to ACER, up from 12 in the previous year.

Of these, 18 involved potential market manipulation, 12 breaking rules on the publishing of inside information and nine were alleged insider-trading cases. For six of these, there were two alleged infractions. The regulator, though, is looking at 45 potential breaches, counting ongoing cases from 2014 and new ones this year.

The watchdog wants the European Commission to either give it some enforcement powers, or to look closer at the ability of countries to prosecute cases.

ACER believes the U.S. has more experience of prosecuting abuses in these markets after the collapse of Enron Corp., the energy giant that went bankrupt in 2001 amid a massive accounting fraud.

Last month, ACER began collecting data from energy exchanges and brokers and will be sifting through one million transactions a day.

But it says it has a “level of resources clearly inadequate to its mandate,” according to its annual report, released in September.

The watchdog has 15 people monitoring markets, compared with 95 who handle surveillance and monitoring at the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

The EU official said that the bloc’s 2016 budget should give the agency an extra eight to 10 members of staff.

In its report, ACER sketched some of the alleged abuses that it has seen. These included the use of so-called spoofing, where traders put in orders to buy or sell contracts without intending to execute those orders. That gives a misleading sense that the price might go up or down, which is then taken advantage of. In the case seen by ACER, identical orders were introduced and withdrawn several times during the day in related energy products. In another instance, somebody traded on information that the maintenance of a power station had been postponed before that news was announced to the market.

Gabriele Steinhauser contributed to this article.

Write to Alistair MacDonald at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

Natural Gas Prices Rise Off Lows...
Traders weigh expectations of stronger demand against storage concerns
By NICOLE FRIEDMAN
Nov. 23, 2015 10:44 a.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-rise-off-lows-1448293465

NEW YORK--Natural gas futures rose Monday, as traders weighed expectations of stronger demand against concerns about record-high amounts of fuel in storage.

Natural gas prices fell to a four-week low Friday on concerns about rising inventories and weak demand. Moderate weather and robust production has pushed the market into oversupply in recent months. Stockpiles of natural gas rose to 4 trillion cubic feet for the first time on record in the week ended Nov. 13.

Forecasts for colder temperatures in the next two weeks boosted prices Monday. About half of U.S. households use natural gas as a primary heating fuel, and cold weather leads to higher consumption.

“The U.S. natural gas market is expecting to see its first winter test over the next two weeks,” which “should help set [a] price floor through month-end,” said Morgan Stanley in a note.

However, the bank added, “any price support may be brief as mild temps and a production ramp are expected in December.”

Futures for December delivery recently rose 0.7 cent, or 0.3%, to $2.152 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.1675/mmBtu, compared with Friday’s range of $2.13-$2.22. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.25/mmBtu, compared with Friday’s range of $2.15-$2.22.

Write to Nicole Friedman at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

U.S. Natural Gas Storage / Inventory Forecast
Re: 54/49 See revision news http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118554400

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	 
 Nov 25, 2015	12:00	 	 	        15B	 
 Nov 19, 2015	10:30	15B	18B	        49B?	 
 Nov 13, 2015	10:30	54/49	51B	        52B	 
 Nov 05, 2015	10:30	52B	60B	        63B	 
 Oct 29, 2015	09:30	63B	69B	        81B	 
 Oct 22, 2015	09:30	81B	88B	       100B	

[Myself °¿°]

interesting Fitch: Lower Energy Prices' Mixed Effect on US Chemical Producers
November 24, 2015 11:33 AM Eastern Standard Time
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20151124005870/en/Fitch-Energy-Prices-Mixed-Effect-Chemical-Producers

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Deflation in the energy sector has filtered through to lower prices for petrochemicals, plastics, and other chemicals with energy-related feedstocks, resulting in lower sales, earnings, and cash flow, according to Fitch Ratings. However, low North American natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) prices should continue to be cost advantages for U.S. chemical producers.

Despite a drop in oil prices, supply is expected to remain robust. Natural gas and NGL prices are expected to get some demand uplift from rebased manufacturing capacity, chemical cracker expansions, and coal power plant retirements, but this will not offset productivity gains in shale.

Despite oil price volatility, North American issuers in Fitch's rated portfolio continue to exhibit solid financial profiles and robust liquidity. The U.S. chemicals sector is heterogeneous in composition; each subsegment has its own competitive dynamics and end-market exposure. We believe producers should benefit from solid domestic demand in manufacturing and recovery in U.S. construction and consumption. Strategic focus in the chemical sector continues around population trends for new product development and specialization.

Non-diversified producers of intermediate commodity chemicals such as ethylene, propylene, and methanol have been negatively affected by the steep decline in oil prices. Pricing for derivatives further down the stream, such as polyethylene, have been more resilient as end-user demand has been strong in the top three North American end-markets: automotive and transportation, building and construction, and packaging. This has kept margins for integrated producers relatively healthy as feedstock prices remain near all-time lows.

The drop in hydrocarbon derivatives should also benefit paints and coatings producers. These derivatives, particularly propylene, are used to create epoxies, resins, and latex, which are important raw materials for the industry. Fitch expects the decline in paints and coatings raw materials prices to be offset by solid growth in the residential and commercial repaint market and growth in nonresidential construction.

North American nitrogen fertilizer production benefits from low feedstock costs as short-term demand is influenced by crop composition and planted acres, which, in turn, are influenced by crop prices and weather. Long-term prices should benefit from the secular trends of declining arable land, growing population, and the shift in diet toward meat. Domestic production has been consolidating while expansions go forward to take advantage of low natural gas prices.

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com.

The above article originally appeared as a post on the Fitch Wire credit market commentary page. The original article, which may include hyperlinks to companies and current ratings, can be accessed at www.fitchratings.com. All opinions expressed are those of Fitch Ratings.

North American Chemicals Handbook (A Detailed Review of Companies in the Chemicals Sector)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=874006

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.

Contacts
Fitch Ratings
Gregory Fodell
Associate Director
Corporates
Fitch Ratings
70 W. Madison Street
Chicago, IL
[phone]
or
Monica Bonar
Senior Director
Corporates
[phone]
33 Whitehall Street
New York, NY
or
Kellie Geressy-Nilsen
Senior Director
Fitch Wire
[phone]
or
Media Relations
Alyssa Castelli, [phone]
[e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

Analysts See 4-Billion-Cubic-Feet Rise in U.S. Natural Gas Inventories
See gas inventories rising by more than typical levels for this time of year
By NICOLE FRIEDMAN
Nov. 24, 2015 1:38 p.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/analysts-see-4-billion-cubic-feet-rise-in-u-s-natural-gas-inventories-1448390298
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Wednesday to show natural gas inventories rose by more than typical levels for this time of year.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that 4 billion cubic feet of gas were added to storage during the week ended Nov. 20, according to the average forecast of 18 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Wednesday at noon ET.

For the Nov. 20 week, the median estimate is for a rise of 4 bcf. Estimates range from an fall of 5 bcf to a rise of 10 bcf.

The estimate for Nov. 20 is above last year’s 141-bcf withdrawal from in storage for the same week, and more than the 36-bcf five-year average draw for that week.

If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Nov. 20 will total 4.004 trillion cubic feet, a record high. That stockpile level would be 16% above the year-ago level and 6.6% above the five-year average for the same week.

Write to Nicole Friedman at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

~added to DGAZ cost avg now 14.6225 now_if_cold_weather_doesn't_screw_me!

[Myself °¿°]

~Tapped out of DGAZ @14.74

[Myself °¿°]

Kurdistan Plans to Export 10 Billion Cubic Meters of Gas to Turkey by 2020
12/01/15 07:21 AM EST
By Alex MacDonald
http://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/TDJNDN_201512014430/kurdistan-plans-to-export-10-billion-cubic-meters-of-gas-to-turkey-by-2020.html

LONDON--Kurdistan plans to export as much as 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Turkey by 2020 and 20 billion cubic meters of gas thereafter, said the natural resources minister for the Kurdistan regional government of Iraq.
Minister Ashti Hawrami told an audience at a conference here that his regional government is working with companies such as the U.K.'s Genel Energy PLC and Spain's Respol SA to fulfill the details of a natural gas agreement signed with Turkey in 2013.

The government's priority is to first sell gas domestically in order to supply future gas fired power stations. But it also wants to export gas in order to generate the revenues needed to continue growing its own economy, a ministry official said. The gas sold to Turkey could then be exported to the European Union, he added.

Kurdistan is also considering the possibility of product swaps with Iran once sanctions are lifted, the official said.


Write to Alex MacDonald at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

See_BOLD:_Natural Gas Slips as Winter Weather Appears Distant
Prices for the January contract fell 1.4 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.221 a million British thermal units
By TIMOTHY PUKO
Dec. 1, 2015 10:58 a.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-slips-as-winter-weather-appears-distant-1448985526
Natural gas prices are falling as even warmer weather settles in across a country that has already seen an abnormally warm autumn.

Prices for the January contract, now the front-month, fell 1.4 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.221 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, making winter weather the big driver for demand, but forecasts show widespread warmth across the country. Temperatures across the East and in most of the country’s northern tier will likely be between 5- and 15-degrees-Fahrenheit-above normal for at least the next two weeks, according to MDA Weather Services in Maryland.

“Stifled demand is expected to limit upside potential in price today,” analysts at consultant Schneider Electric SA in Louisville, Ky., said in a note.

But prices have at times jumped into positive territory Tuesday, a sign traders may be wary of selling, also known as going short, said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy-advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates, in a note. The potential for gains has fallen now that gas is down by half from this time a year ago. Storage levels surpassed 4 trillion cubic feet last week for the first time ever, but prices have already plummeted in recent weeks as storage peaked.

“Record storage (levels) have been baked in and...most money managers have a reduced appetite for the short side of this market,” Mr. Ritterbusch said in a note.

Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.155/mmBtu, compared with Monday’s range of $2.0425 to $2.14. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.05/mmBtu, compared with Monday’s range of $2.09 to $2.13.

Write to Timothy Puko at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

eye-balling /NG 11/29 Sunday's low...
2.175

[Myself °¿°]

come on fill my ugaz 2.37 bid

[Myself °¿°]

~In UGAZ @2.37 tore right through my sunday's low mark...

[Myself °¿°]

~tapped out of UGAZ@the2.40/bid_I didn't like how it tore through sunday's /NG low.
I don't trust it so I'll take the 756 gain
25,200 shares ...I'm done for now

[Myself °¿°]

1/2 position bid for DGAZ @16.86

[Myself °¿°]

U.S. Natural Gas Storage/Inventory Forecast
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	 
 Dec 03, 2015	10:30	??B 	-51B	        9B	 
 Nov 25, 2015	12:00	9B	5B	        15B	 
 Nov 19, 2015	10:30	15B	18B	        49B	 
 Nov 13, 2015	10:30	49B	51B	        52B	 
 Nov 05, 2015	10:30	52B	60B	        63B	 
 Oct 29, 2015	09:30	63B	69B	        81B

[Myself °¿°]

1/2 position bid for UGAZ @2.27

[Myself °¿°]

Canceled 1/2 position order for UGAZ @2.27 it was supposed to fill in futures premarket.
They wouldn't give it to me
I don't want to get run over this am in regular hrs trading

added this print screen after the fact

[Myself °¿°]

SEE?!! my stop would have safely taken me out @2.28/2.29

[Myself °¿°]

Natural Gas Lower After Inventory Data
Stockpiles fell last week but remain near record highs
By NICOLE FRIEDMAN
Updated Dec. 3, 2015 11:09 a.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-falls-ahead-of-inventory-data-1449156626
NEW YORK--Natural gas prices rose Thursday, then erased gains, after weekly inventory data showed that stockpiles fell more than expected last week but held near record highs.

Natural gas inventories fell for the first time since March in the week ended Nov. 27, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday. Stockpiles drew by 53 billion cubic feet, more than the 51 bcf decline that analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected.

Futures for January delivery rose as high as $2.19 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the report, before erasing gains. Prices recently fell 1.3 cent, or 0.6%, to $2.152 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Consumers usually start taking natural gas out of storage in late October or early November as demand for the heating fuel increases. But mild weather has kept consumption low in recent weeks, pushing inventories to record highs above 4 trillion cubic feet.

The market remains oversupplied. As of Nov. 27, stockpiles stood at 3.956 tcf, 6.7% above the five-year average for this time of year.

“Even with the draw today, you’re basically just under 4 tcf, and we’re in December now. So there’s a lot of gas around,” said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy. “It doesn’t look like we have winter starting up.”

Warmer-than-average temperatures in the next two weeks are expected to keep consumption subdued, meaning that stockpile draws in the coming weeks could be smaller than average, analysts say.

Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.11/mmBtu, compared with Wednesday’s range of $2.1325-$2.21. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.10/mmBtu, compared with Wednesday’s range of $2.14-$2.22.

Write to Nicole Friedman at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

Natural Gas Gains as Stockpiles Shrink
Inventories fell more than expected last week
By NICOLE FRIEDMAN
Updated Dec. 3, 2015 3:43 p.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-falls-ahead-of-inventory-data-1449156626
NEW YORK--Natural gas prices rose Thursday after weekly inventory data showed that stockpiles fell more than expected last week.

Natural gas inventories shrank for the first time since March in the week ended Nov. 27, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday. Stockpiles withdrew by 53 billion cubic feet, more than the 51 bcf decline that analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected.

Futures for January delivery rose as high as $2.19 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the report, before falling into negative territory during intraday trading. Prices settled up 1.6 cents, or 0.7%, at $2.181 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Consumers usually start taking natural gas out of storage in late October or early November as demand for the heating fuel increases. But mild weather has kept consumption low in recent weeks, pushing inventories to record highs above 4 trillion cubic feet.

Last week’s larger-than-expected draw came as “a small warning sign that if the weather ever changes, we’re going to see bigger draws than people think,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group. “Of course, that’s all conjecture unless it ever gets cold.”

The market remains oversupplied. As of Nov. 27, stockpiles stood at 3.956 tcf, 6.7% above the five-year average for this time of year.

“Even with the draw today, you’re basically just under 4 tcf, and we’re in December now. So there’s a lot of gas around,” said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy. “It doesn’t look like we have winter starting up.”

Warmer-than-average temperatures in the next two weeks are expected to keep consumption subdued, meaning that stockpile draws in the coming weeks could be smaller than average, analysts say.

Write to Nicole Friedman at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

~Tapped into the ask @UGAZ 2.38 looking for 2.42/2.43 what I should do is tap in a stop @2.41 when the bid hits 2.43

I just may do that
come on short covering
run wild

[Myself °¿°]

~tapped out of UGAZ @2.41 +756

[Myself °¿°]

Natural Gas Rises on Better Signs for Demand
Weather reports are starting to show colder weather creep into the forecast in mid-December
By TIMOTHY PUKO
Updated Dec. 4, 2015 3:16 p.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-rises-on-better-signs-for-demand-1449244510
Natural gas prices inched up for a second-straight day Friday, boosted by several positive signs for demand, analysts said.

Prices for the front-month January contract settled up 0.5 cent, or 0.2%, at $2.186 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas lost 1.2% for the week, its fourth-consecutive losing week.

Despite two-straight winning sessions, gas is up just 1% since Wednesday’s close.

Most of those gains came Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said stockpiles decreased by 53 billion cubic feet, more than the 51-bcf decline forecast by analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. That widely watched report indicates to traders that supply was smaller or demand was larger than expected, which helped support the market for a second day, analysts said.

Weather reports, while still showing widespread above-average temperatures, are starting to show colder weather creep into the forecast in mid-December. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heating, making winter cold and demand for heat the biggest drivers in the market.

Gas consumption from power plants also hit a fourth monthly record in a row, Simmons & Co. International said, citing data provider Bentek Energy. Power plants consumed 24.2 bcf a day in November, 4.7 bcf more than the same period a year ago when prices were 40% higher, Bentek said.

But that is in part balanced out by total demand falling behind its pace from last year by about 4 bcf a day, according to Bentek. Warmer temperatures have limited heating demand throughout the autumn, Simmons said. Prices dipped back into negative territory several times Friday and aren’t likely to move up substantially until the weather shows a more significant change, analysts said.

“It will be normal to cold at some point again this winter, but if it stays generally pretty mild it’s hard for prices to do anything,” said Eric Fell, senior natural gas analyst at Genscape Inc., a data provider.

Write to Timothy Puko at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

check out this cold snap forecast...
note the date: 12/20
watch it move: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stratosphere;sess=

[Myself °¿°]

Wow, what to do...
what to do, what to do?

[Myself °¿°]

eyeballing ugaz 2.12-.13

[Myself °¿°]

~In UGAZ @

[Myself °¿°]

~Tapped out of ugaz 2.05 +601.50
Tapped out because I don't like getting run over
somehow I deleted the text 2.03 when I added the screenshot in my
Trade entry post http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118983973

[Myself °¿°]

Natural Gas Falls on Weather Forecasts
Mild weather and robust production have pushed the market into oversupply this year
By NICOLE FRIEDMAN
Updated Dec. 7, 2015 1:42 p.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-falls-on-weather-forecasts-1449503056
NEW YORK—Natural-gas prices dropped sharply Monday as forecasts for warm weather weighed on demand expectations.

Natural gas for January delivery recently fell 11.8 cents, or 5.4%, to $2.068 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices were on track for their lowest settlement since August.

Mild weather and robust production has pushed the natural-gas market into oversupply this year and pushed prices lower. Weather forecasts released Monday continued to show above-average temperatures in the next two weeks, at a time of year when demand for the heating fuel is typically robust.

“There is no sign of real demand out there from the weather side,” said Scott Shelton, broker at ICAP, in a note. “This is pretty much worst-case scenario.”

Natural-gas stockpiles are 6.7% above the five-year average for this time of year and near record highs. Even if the weather turns colder in early 2016, stockpiles could still be very high at the end of winter, sparking concerns that storage facilities could fill up during the summer, said Teri Viswanath, director of commodity strategy for natural gas at BNP Paribas SA.

“Right now the expectation is that we’re going to be ending [the winter] with an unmanageable level of...storage,” Ms. Viswanath said. “It looks like we’re running into a problem.”

Write to Nicole Friedman at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

~In UGAZ @1.97 exit target /ng @2.07

[Myself °¿°]

~Out UGAZ @1.99 +640

[Myself °¿°]

trade time less than 12min playing futures close...
end of day short covering run.
/ng didn't hit 2.07 (previous close) but might after hrs
...I'm not relying on it
I tapped out @ the bid when futures closed
trade time entry 11:18:25 pst 32k shares @1.97
trade time exit 11:30:20 pst 32k shares @1.99
2 trades this week
+601.50
+640.00
1241.50 for the week so far

weekly goal 1k

[Myself °¿°]

U.S. Natural Gas Storage/Inventory Forcast
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast 	Previous	 
 Dec 10, 2015	10:30	 -??B	-64B	        -53B	 
 Dec 03, 2015	10:30	-53B	-51B	        9B	 
 Nov 25, 2015	12:00	9B	5B	        15B	 
 Nov 19, 2015	10:30	15B	18B	        49B	 
 Nov 13, 2015	10:30	49B	51B	        52B	 
 Nov 05, 2015	10:30	52B	60B	        63B

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
This one ^ will give the the actual when the time comes. Bottom row, third column from the left.

http://geckoicapital.com/expectations
More guesses ^

[Myself °¿°]

sheesh... Little Rock will hit 75 Saturday zip 72201 weather channel

[Myself °¿°]

full coverage cold has moved out a couple 3 days to Dec 22/23
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=stratosphere;sess=

[Myself °¿°]

eyeballing ugaz 1.88-1.90 for a scalp

[Myself °¿°]

it didn't travel low enough and its getting too close to the inventory report so scratch that idea
I don't like buying ahead of the reoprt

[Myself °¿°]

scalped in and out of ugaz for 960 bucks

[Myself °¿°]

My daughter usually rides her dirt bike to the bus stop
...I could have had more gains on that trade but its raining hard
so I gave her a ride to the bus stop

[Myself °¿°]

Im considering an end of day futures short covering run trade @ ugaz 1.85-1.86 for whatever I can get out of it

The last time I did this my trade time entry was 11:18 pacific 2:18 east

[Myself °¿°]

nope I missed it... just as well, wasnt huge anyway. Im done L8r

[Myself °¿°]

gap closed if /ng opens( 6:00 pacific 9:00 eastern) down here (/ng 2.001) or lower.
I really want to buy it but fear the possible double bottom @ /ng 1.902
see previous post

[Myself °¿°]

~In ugaz @1.77

[Myself °¿°]

(gap closed) I'd like to see short covering back to the lower weekly Bband @2.04

[Myself °¿°]

as long as /NG OnBalanceVolume looks like this and keeps doing this...
I'm comfortable with this trade
gains/loss 370 bucks a ugaz penny

[Myself °¿°]

~Sold 1/2 @1.81

[Myself °¿°]

~Out_remaining_1/2_of_ugaz_@1.78_1,017.50_gain

[Myself °¿°]

4 trades this week...

  
  +601.50 ~In UGAZ @2.03 ~Out UGAZ @2.05 
  +640.00 ~In UGAZ @1.97 ~Out UGAZ @1.99 
  +960.00 ~In UGAZ @2.03 ~Out UGAZ @2.06 
 +1017.50 ~In UGAZ @1.77 ~Out 1/2 UGAZ @1.81 ~Out remaining 1/2 UGAZ @1.78 
 -------- 
 +3219.00 for the week

weekly goal $1k Excellent week

[Myself °¿°]

eia.gov (For the Week Ending Wednesday, December 9, 2015)
http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/
Natural gas prices are down at virtually all trading locations for the report week (Wednesday, December 2, through Wednesday, December 9). The Henry Hub spot price began the week at $2.17 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday and ended at $2.00/MMBtu yesterday.
At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the January Nymex price began at $2.165/MMBtu last Wednesday and settled at $2.062/MMBtu yesterday.
Working natural gas in storage decreased by 76 billion cubic feet (Bcf), declining to 3,880 Bcf as of Friday, December 4. The net withdrawal from storage resulted in storage levels 15% above a year ago and 6% above the five-year (2010–14) average for this week.
The total oil and natural gas rig count fell by 7 units this week, with 737 units in service for the week ending Friday, December 4, according to data from Baker Hughes Incorporated. This is the lowest combined oil and natural rig count since October of 1999. The oil rig count fell by 10 units to 545, and the natural gas rig count increased by 3 units to 192 units.
The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, increased by 1.3% to $4.86/MMBtu for the week ending Friday, December 4. The prices for ethane and natural gasoline declined by 2.0% and 0.6%, respectively; the prices for propane, butane, and isobutane increased by 2.2%, 3.9%, and 4.5%, respectively.
more summary data

Prices/Demand/Supply:
Henry Hub price dips below symbolic $2.00/MMBtu. Following a record-warm October, continuing growth in natural gas production, record underground natural gas storage levels, and the projected continuation of mild winter weather, the Henry Hub price closed at $1.98/MMBtu on Tuesday and $2.00/MMBtu yesterday. Prior to this week, the Henry Hub spot price has only closed below $2.00/MMBtu on 20 trading days since 2002. During the summer of 2012, when natural gas storage stocks were very high following an unusually mild winter, prices dipped into the $1.80-$1.90/MMBtu range for a few days. That summer, the ample supply of low-priced natural gas was absorbed in large part by the electric power sector.

Natural gas prices are typically elevated during the winter, when residential heating demand competes with other sectors for supply and draws down storage stocks. This winter, however, as expected, prices have remained low, and market participants anticipate that low natural gas prices will continue; the average futures price contract for the remaining winter months (January, February, and March), which can serve as an indicator of market expectations, was only 11¢ above the Henry Hub price yesterday.

Spot prices down across the board on mild weather. During this report period, weather was much milder overall compared to the previous period, particularly Tuesday and yesterday.

The Henry Hub spot price began the week at $2.17/MMBtu last Wednesday and closed yesterday at $2.00/MMBtu. Prices at the Chicago Citygate began the report week at $2.20/MMBtu and closed the week down, at $2.04/MMBtu. Prices at two key import points into the West -- Northwest Sumas (into Washington) and Kingsgate (into Idaho) -- both fell substantially over the report week, with Sumas falling by 27¢ to $1.92/MMBtu, and Kingsgate falling by 28¢ to $1.85/MMBtu.

Prices down in Northeastern locations. New England prices decreased as a result of slightly warmer weather. Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, fell from $3.06/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.82/MMBtu yesterday, a decrease of 41%. Transco Zone 6 NY, serving New York City, fell from $2.18/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.77/MMBtu yesterday.

Marcellus prices down. Marcellus prices featured similar movements to prices elsewhere in the country. At Tennessee's Zone 4 Marcellus trading point, prices began at $1.26/MMBtu last Wednesday and fell to $1.07/MMBtu yesterday. Similarly, on Transco's Leidy Line, prices decreased from $1.26/MMBtu to $1.10/MMBtu Wednesday-to-Wednesday.

Nymex prices down. At the Nymex, the January contract began at $2.165/MMBtu last Wednesday, and ended the report week down over 10¢, closing at $2.062/MMBtu yesterday. The 12-month strip, which averages the January 2015 through December 2016 Nymex prices, closed at $2.347/MMBtu yesterday, 6¢ lower than last week.

Storm systems affect Oklahoma and Pacific Northwest. A winter storm that hit Oklahoma on November 28-29 left over 180,000 Oklahoma Gas and Electric customers without power. Outages continued through Friday, December 4, but power should now be restored to customers. Then on Tuesday of this week, a storm system brought strong winds and rain to the Pacific Northwest, cutting off power to more than 100,000 customers. Natural gas consumption for electric generation in the Pacific Northwest dipped on Tuesday and yesterday, likely as a result of demand destruction from the storm.

Supply increases. Natural gas supply this week increased, driven by both increased dry production and imports from Canada. Dry natural gas production and imports from Canada both increased by 0.5 Bcf/d, or 0.7% and 10.5%, respectively. Liquefied natural gas sendout remained at minimal levels. Overall supply averaged 77.6 Bcf/d for the week, which is 1.2% higher than last week and 0.8% lower than this week last year.

Consumption decreases slightly. U.S. consumption of natural gas decreased by 1.1% compared to the previous report week, led by a decrease in the residential/commercial sector. Residential/commercial consumption fell by 3.4% this week, or 1.1 Bcf/d, as a result of warmer weather, particularly on Tuesday and yesterday. Consumption in other sectors increased modestly, but these increases did not offset the decrease in residential/commercial consumption. Consumption for power generation increased by 0.9%, industrial consumption increased by 0.2%, and exports to Mexico increased by 14.6%. Exports to Mexico only account for about 4% of total disposition.

more price data

Storage
Net storage withdrawal is larger than the five-year average and larger than last year's withdrawals for the report week. With the second week of positive net storage withdrawals, the working natural gas inventory for the storage week ending December 3 totaled 3,880 Bcf, which was 514 Bcf (15%) higher than last year at this time and 236 Bcf (6%) higher than the five-year average for this week. The net withdrawal for the storage week was 76 Bcf compared with the 53 Bcf net storage withdrawal reported the previous week. This withdrawal compares with the five-year (2010–14) average net withdrawal of 65 Bcf for the week and last year's withdrawal of 47 Bcf for the same week.

Storage withdrawals are larger than market expectations. Market expectations, on average, called for a withdrawal of 65 Bcf for this week. When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m. on December 10, the January Nymex price rose about 2¢/MMBtu to about $2.09/MMBtu, and it fell by about 4¢/MMBtu to $2.05/MMBtu in the following hour.

Temperatures during the storage report week are warmer than normal. Temperatures in the Lower 48 states averaged 43°F for the storage report week, 3°F warmer than the 30-year normal temperature and 2°F warmer than the average temperature during the same week last year. There were 155 population-weighted heating degree days (HDD) during this report week, 4 HDD more than the five-year average and 13 HDD fewer than during the same period last year.

more storage data

See also:

Natural Gas Analysis Reports
Short-Term Energy Outlook

[Myself °¿°]

eyeballing ugaz @1.49 for a scalp

[Myself °¿°]

nope. probably lower now after seeing that /ng spike down

[Myself °¿°]

okay, now /ng is starting to move into "way_oversold_territory"

[Myself °¿°]

eyeballing /ng +/-1.825 1.818? I'm still trying to dial it in

[Myself °¿°]

OhComeOn! Show me ugaz 1.41/1.42 Show me 2k contracts trading on the /ng 1min chart

[Myself °¿°]

Didn't bite. Anemic_/ng_volume

[Myself °¿°]

Look at that /ng OnBalanceVolume fall off a cliff into the futures close

[Myself °¿°]

~In UGAZ @1.32 for a scalp

[Myself °¿°]

~Out UGAZ @1.34 +1,052.00

[Myself °¿°]

Missed a short scalp by 1/2 second

[Myself °¿°]

U.S. Natural Gas Storage/Inventory Forecast...
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	 
 Dec 17, 2015	10:30	-??B	-40B	        -76B	 
 Dec 10, 2015	10:30	-76B	-64B	        -53B	 
 Dec 03, 2015	10:30	-53B	-51B	        9B	 
 Nov 25, 2015	12:00	9B	5B	        15B	 
 Nov 19, 2015	10:30	15B	18B	        49B	 
 Nov 13, 2015	10:30	49B	51B	        52B

* More guesses http://geckoicapital.com/expectations
* http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
EIA reporting actual ^ bottom row third column... when the time comes

[Myself °¿°]

Holy cow

[Myself °¿°]

~In_and_out of gains @UGAZ 1.39 scalp

[Myself °¿°]

crap... trying to get back out of UGAZ @1.39

[Myself °¿°]

canceled sell order 2 cost... it doesn't do me any good down here.
stuck myself in a hope trade looking for an end of day monster short covering rally
or tap out when I just can't stand it anymore
crap

[Myself °¿°]

~Out UGAZ @1.34 -2,500 so I lost a tad more than 2/3 of last week's gains
add the balance of last weeks and this weeks gains, I'm about 200 short of 1k/week goal
takes money to make money and ya can't win every trade
...although I'd like to
...I don't like losing!
*Promise to myself to update my scorecard sunday night or monday early
I'm just not in the mood right now

[Myself °¿°]

2 trades last week

 
 +1,052.00 ~In UGAZ @1.32 ~Out UGAZ @1.34  
 -2,500.00 ~In UGAZ @1.39 ~Out UGAZ @1.34  
 ------- 
 -1,448.00* for the week

Dec week dates 7-11 http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=119104170

 
 +3,219.00 Dec week dates 7-11 
 -1,448.00* Last week 
 --------- 
 +1,771.00** 2 week average

 2,000.00 @1k/week, weekly goal avg for 2 weeks 
  1,771.00** 2 week average 
  -------- 
   -229.00 2 week goal of 1k/week fell short by 229.00 
 
 

[Myself °¿°]

Interesting resilience going into the close but I don't know what's going to drive it up through resistance
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=119349165

[Myself °¿°]

Natural Gas Retreats as Forecasts Stay Warm
Forecasts for Christmas Eve highs in the 70s for New York, Philadelphia and Washington
By TIMOTHY PUKO
Updated Dec. 22, 2015 4:44 p.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-slips-as-winter-weather-appears-distant-1450800223
Natural-gas prices retreated Tuesday with weather forecasts too warm to extend gas’s biggest rally in nearly a year to a second day.

Prices for the front-month January contract settled down 2.3 cents, or 1.2%, at $1.888 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The retreat comes a day after prices rose 8.1%, their largest one-day percentage gain since January.

Weather forecasts have chilled a bit, pushing bearish traders to close out at the start of the week. But they are showing that cold limited to the Rockies and Texas, with major markets for gas heat still smothered in extremely above-average temperatures through New Year’s Eve.

MDA Weather Services in Maryland is forecasting Christmas Eve highs in the 70s for New York, Philadelphia and Washington, matching or even hotter than Atlanta. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $1.00/mmBtu and lower Tuesday, compared with Monday’s range of $1.45 to $1.60.

A cold January “is still pie-in-sky at this point,” Martin King, vice president of institutional research at FirstEnergy Capital Corp. in Calgary, said in a note. “It is going to take a Polar Vortex of galactic proportions in January and February to undo the lack of storage withdrawals seen in December.”

So much surplus gas has built up in recent weeks that storage levels are likely to end December 6.9% above the previous record, King said. And so there is no urgency to buy gas, even if forecasts are slightly colder than they were at the end of last week, analysts said.

“Bullish traders have been fooled by false forecasts so many times that it’s doubtful they price anything in until the cold front actually hits,” said Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at energy-consulting firm Gelber & Associates in Houston. “Even then, they might have to see it in the withdrawals before the market moves significantly.”

Write to Timothy Puko at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

Media_can_spin_it_HUh! Natural Gas Rises on Signs of Strong Demand
Prices settle 5% higher
By TIMOTHY PUKO
Updated Dec. 23, 2015 3:11 p.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-in-holding-pattern-on-mixed-weather-forecasts-1450886076
Natural gas prices surged throughout the afternoon on signs that stronger demand and the first spell of wintry weather could be on the way for the East Coast.

Prices for the front-month January contract settled up 9.5 cents, or 5%, at $1.983 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Dec. 11. Gas set a new inflation adjusted low for its history of Nymex trading on Thursday, but gained ground now in three of four sessions since, up 13% during that span.

Colder weather forecasts have been pushing bearish traders out of the market, analysts and traders have said. Weather forecasts were already showing patches of cold spread over the Rockies and Texas at the start of this week, and Wednesday afternoon’s updates also showed colder-than-normal weather spread to the East Coast between Georgia and Pennsylvania two weeks out, according to WeatherBELL Analytics LLC.

About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, making winter weather the big driver in the natural gas market. WeatherBELL is predicting blizzards with snow and ice over Texas and some of the first winter weather to hit the East Coast after a spate of extreme warmth--including forecasts of nearly 70-degree highs in New York on Christmas Eve--has delayed the start of winter until January.

That warm December and limited heating demand caused stockpiles to drain by just 25 billion cubic feet last week, according to The Wall Street Journal’s survey of analysts and traders. That is just a fifth of their typical drawdown for that week of the year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly update on natural gas stockpiles at 10:30 a.m. EST on Thursday.

But even that small drain is still likely a bullish sign to some traders, said Kyle Cooper, managing director of research at IAF Advisors, a Houston consulting firm. With weather as warm as it has been, in many other years there would have actually been an addition to stockpiles, he said.

“Considering the temperatures, that’s a pretty healthy drop,” Mr. Cooper said. “The underlying supply-demand balance is pretty decent.”

Write to Timothy Puko at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

I was absolutely run over...
...trying to short /ng
@2.002 (orange) what I thought would be intraday resistance (NOPE)
trade time 11:18 (pacific) when I knew futures closes @11:30
I've scalped ugaz end of day for 2 and 3 pennies many times (short covering into the close)
...what was I thinking? Tunnel vision!
Short covering rally into the close and +some
pummeled me @ dgaz 21.57
I'm still holding it and plan to continue holding it to break-even or better
...I'm still working that out. Ugh!

[Myself °¿°]

Home Heating Bills Forecast This Winter
Home heating bills likely to be lower, due to warmer weather forecast for much of the U.S.
By CASSANDRA SWEET and BRIAN MCGILL
Dec. 23, 2015 7:29 p.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/home-heating-bills-forecast-this-winter-1450916967
Home heating bills this winter are likely to be lower than last year’s, due to a warmer weather forecast for much of the U.S. that would require less fuel for heating. Fuel prices are the same, or lower, than a year ago.

Natural gas prices have fallen to historic lows this year, owing to the shale gas boom, while low oil prices, brought by the fracking boom and a global glut of supply, have brought down prices for heating oil and propane. Low prices for natural gas, a key fuel for generating electricity, have kept a lid on power prices.

click on the link above to see the image below
[ chart] I can't hotlink this image to iHub wsj won't allow it [ /chart]

Write to Cassandra Sweet at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

U.S. Natural Gas Storage/Inventory Forecast...
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	 
 Dec 24, 2015	10:30	-??B 	-25B	        -34B	 
 Dec 17, 2015	10:30	-34B	-40B	        -76B	 
 Dec 10, 2015	10:30	-76B	-64B	        -53B	 
 Dec 03, 2015	10:30	-53B	-51B	        9B	 
 Nov 25, 2015	12:00	9B	5B	        15B	 
 Nov 19, 2015	10:30	15B	18B	        49B

More guesses http://geckoicapital.com/expectations
Many were boasting "This is outright manipulation, pure and simple" as natgas tanked.
These guesses are BS... UNDERBIDDING the draw will be at least -36
the 5 year avg will still be 100+ short but it won't matter
...the boys are gassing this thing. I don't know why I didn't play it that way
When the number comes out it will probably run hard and the spin will be
"Drawdown was larger than expected... It was cold"

[Myself °¿°]

... there is probably, "no way" I'll see the previous close price before the inventory drawdown number is released
More guesses http://geckoicapital.com/expectations
Many were boasting "This is outright manipulation, pure and simple" as natgas tanked.
These guesses are BS... UNDERBIDDING the draw will be at least -36
the 5 year avg will still be 100+ short but it won't matter
...the boys are gassing this thing. I don't know why I didn't play it that way
When the number comes out it will probably run hard and the spin will be
"Drawdown was larger than expected... It was cold"
Natgas will probably see 2.17 if it's allowed to get through this resistance. Oil is also finding resistance.
I could have waited until this am if I wanted to step in front of this train.

[Myself °¿°]

Regular hrs futures trading market is open. 1_&_1/2hrs... till the inventory # is released... gap is closed
Take this freaking thing down please

[Myself °¿°]

~tapped out dgaz @20 -4+K I don't have the stomach for it.
as much as I'd like to stay short... I can't handle a 6+k loss where it was this am
taking my lumps
pissed

[Myself °¿°]

Rare for here: a white Christmas

[Myself °¿°]

gaps

[Myself °¿°]

limit order for dgaz @13.10

[Myself °¿°]

~In DGAZ @13.10 I thought I had it priced to fill slightly above the 2.347 gap
nope

[Myself °¿°]

I'd sure like to see some common sence predictable pricing come back into natgas

[Myself °¿°]

Sure would be nice to see a solid 9-12% gain for my short overnight/tomorrow am. CNBC sucks

[Myself °¿°]

WSJ Natural Gas Sinks on Weather Outlook
Weather forecasts showed warmer temperatures in the next two weeks than previously expected
By NICOLE FRIEDMAN
Dec. 30, 2015 10:14 a.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-sinks-on-weather-outlook-1451488443
NEW YORK—Natural gas prices slid Wednesday, erasing strong gains from the previous sessions, on renewed concerns about weak demand.

Futures for February delivery recently fell 13.8 cents, or 5.8%, to $2.232 a million British thermal units.

Natural-gas prices entered a bull market Tuesday after rising 27% in six trading days as colder weather forecasts boosted demand expectations. About half of U.S. households use natural gas as their primary heating fuel. Unusually cheap natural gas also boosted demand from power plants and other industrial sites, analysts said.

However, weather forecasts released Wednesday showed warmer temperatures in the next two weeks than previously expected.

A strong El Nino weather pattern has caused above-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. in recent weeks, reducing demand for heating fuels. As of Dec. 18, natural-gas inventories stood 12.1% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.255/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday’s range of $2.33 to $2.39. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.07/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday’s range of $1.65-$2.25.

Write to Nicole Friedman at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

lower points of interest

[Myself °¿°]

Daily $SPGSNGP

[Myself °¿°]

U.S. Natural Gas Storage / Inventory Forecasts
See more guesses http://geckoicapital.com/expectations
For when the time comes. Thurs 10:30am EIA report. http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Number is located on the bottom row, third column............. ^

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	 
 Dec 31, 2015	10:30	-??B	-57B	        -32B	 
 Dec 24, 2015	10:30	-32B	-25B	        -34B	 
 Dec 17, 2015	10:30	-34B	-40B	        -76B	 
 Dec 10, 2015	10:30	-76B	-64B	        -53B	 
 Dec 03, 2015	10:30	-53B	-51B	        9B	 
 Nov 25, 2015	12:00	9B	5B	        15B

[Myself °¿°]

natgas short is going well
I really want to play this right.... just need to get through the noise.

[Myself °¿°]

48hr DGAZ slippage... @6:01:11am (Pacific) day before yesterday,
when (/NGg6 was 2.336 DGAZ @13.10)
This is a screenshot @5:48 almost 48hrs later. (/NGg6 @2.336 DGAZ @12.42)
Hindsight being 20/20, I should have taken the 9+K gains I had yesterday.
This is not the volume of noise I expected to take place overnight.
No cushions of comfort in natgas

[Myself °¿°]

enough already, gap closed...

[Myself °¿°]

NASA ...
NASA http://www.nasa.gov/

Dec. 29, 2015 A Still-Growing El Niño Set to Bear Down on U.S.
http://www.nasa.gov/feature/a-still-growing-el-nino-set-to-bear-down-on-us

Latest El Niño/La Niña Watch Data.
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/

2016 at the time of this post... [no images yet]
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/archive/

2015 El Niño/La Niña Watch Data Archived images
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/archive/index.cfm?y=2015

Climate News http://www.nasa.gov/subject/3127/climate/

JPL News email signup... http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/signup/

	Breaking News - All JPL News delivered immediately 
 	Daily News - Single daily JPL News summary 
 	Weekly News - Single weekly JPL News summary 
 	Monthly News - Single Monthly JPL News summary

[Myself °¿°]

$SPGSNGP Weekly/Daily/4hr/1hr/30min charts
Weekly


Daily


4hr


1hr


30min

[Myself °¿°]

Winter_Outlook_Update: January Cold Snap in East Possible, But_El_Niño_Influence_Remains_in_February_and_March
Extensive read: http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/january-march-outlook-2016-noaa-wsi

[Myself °¿°]

Higher low's test?

[Myself °¿°]

Announcement: Moody's: Oil and gas industry to cut spending in 2016 amid continued commodity price weakness
Global Credit Research - 04 Jan 2016
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Oil-and-gas-industry-to-cut-spending-in-2016--PR_341936

New York, January 04, 2016 -- As commodity prices continue to slide, the global oil and gas industry will reduce capital spending and work toward leaner budgets in 2016, says Moody's Investors Service.

"Excess supply will continue to drag on commodity prices in 2016 in the global oil markets and the US natural gas market," said Steven Wood, a Moody's Managing Director. "Furthermore, the potential lifting of sanctions against Iran could bring even more supply to the market in 2016, offsetting any expected declines in US production."

Low commodity prices have led to a deterioration in cash flows and liquidity, straining the already limited financial flexibility of speculative-grade oil and gas companies. Even large, diversified investment-grade companies will struggle with diminishing financial flexibility and increasing financial leverage.

Moody's expects upstream capital spending to drop by at least 20%-25%, leaving the oilfield services and drilling industry the most stressed sector in 2016. Integrated and national oil companies will cut capital spending and thus lower capital budgets in 2016, but oilfield services and drilling companies in particular will emphasize cost reduction as they adjust to reduced demand.

Overall, the oil and gas sector will likely see a rise in distressed exchanges and defaults in 2016, according to the report, "Oil and Natural Gas Industry -- Global: Persistent Weak Prices in 2016 Rein in Capital Spending, Heighten Financing Risk."

"As a result of deteriorating cash flows and credit investors increasingly avoiding the struggling energy sector, Latin American national oil companies will face high refinancing risk," added Nymia Almeida, a Moody's Vice President - Senior Credit Officer. "On top of significant maturities due in 2016-17 for Mexico's PEMEX, Brazil's Petrobras and Venezuela's PDVSA, currency devaluations will raise import costs, capital spending and interest payments."

Credit metrics will also continue deteriorating for China's three national oil companies -- China National Petroleum Corporation (Aa3 stable), China Petrochemical Corporation (Aa3 stable) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (Aa3 stable) -- through at least 2017. Furthermore, Russia's weak rouble will help the country's national oil companies withstand low oil prices, but economic sanctions limit access to long-term external financing from US and EU financial and capital markets for the Russian giant Rosneft (Ba1 stable).

[Myself °¿°]

Decay is killing me
Bought DGAZ @13.10 Tuesday am when /NGg6 was 2.336
-3045.70 in decay on trade since Tuesday
I should have taken the 9+k gains when I had the chance
Come on boys... pummel natgas

[Myself °¿°]

big number coming, 101 draw http://geckoicapital.com/expectations

[Myself °¿°]

Waiting for drawing alerts to ring...
I'm looking to reposition dgaz @12 or under for a scalp

[Myself °¿°]

Oil's possible 33.20 double_bottom_bounce (a buck.10 away)...
is more or less the equivalent of natgas' recent possible double bottom bounce (that was ignored and torn through)
regardless what happens... here it comes

[Myself °¿°]

~In UGAZ @2.32 for a scalp

[Myself °¿°]

~ added more ugaz @2.18 Now, short cover... futures into the close.
Make another run for the top
cost basis 2.3132542 uhg, I guess I'm just a glutton for punishment.
GO ^UP^!

You've gotta be kidding me dgaz

Give me a break!

[Myself °¿°]

U.S. Natural Gas Storage/Inventory Forecast...
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	 
 Jan 07, 2016	10:30	-¿?B	-99B	        -58B	 
 Dec 31, 2015	10:30	-58B	-57B	        -32B	 
 Dec 24, 2015	10:30	-32B	-25B	        -34B	 
 Dec 17, 2015	10:30	-34B	-40B	        -76B	 
 Dec 10, 2015	10:30	-76B	-64B	        -53B	 
 Dec 03, 2015	10:30	-53B	-51B	        9B

More Guesses http://geckoicapital.com/expectations
and when the time comes (10:30) "eia report" see the bottom row (net change) column
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

[Myself °¿°]

gtc-ext order to sell ugaz @2.37

[Myself °¿°]

changing my gtc-ext sell UGAZ @2.37 order to 2.44...
g-night

[Myself °¿°]

Weather forecast: euro model video...

Published on Jan 7, 2016

European model shows strong dynamics as a deep upper trough dives southeast into the Eastern US next week while a strong block develops over Greenland.

[Myself °¿°]

changed my UGAZ gtc-ext sell order back to @2.37

[Myself °¿°]

~Out UGAZ @2.37

[Myself °¿°]

Here's a wild card: lmmt order buy DGAZ @11.50...
On the spike only. If it takes all day to creep down to it I'll cancel it
probably not going to happen

[Myself °¿°]

~in Dgaz @11.50 @11.55stop stopped me out @11.53... Oh well

[Myself °¿°]

~Back in UGAZ @2.56

[Myself °¿°]

~out UGAZ @2.60

[Myself °¿°]

~In 1/2 position DGAZ @10.98

[Myself °¿°]

temporary dgaz stop @11.11

[Myself °¿°]

~Back in DGAZ @10.71

[Myself °¿°]

stop took me out @ dgaz 10.73

[Myself °¿°]

~In DGAZ @10.36

[Myself °¿°]

stopped out 10.40 crap

[Myself °¿°]

come_on gas just a tap higher... show me volume

[Myself °¿°]

my last possible short mark is/was here...
drawing alert did not sound
somewhere around dgaz 10 flat or under

[Myself °¿°]

chuckle... I made 434buks today stopping out tryin to find the bottom of dgaz

[Myself °¿°]

/NGg6 gaps

[Myself °¿°]

CNPC, Chevron Launch Natural-Gas Production at China Plant
http://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/TDJNDN_201601113971/cnpc-chevron-launch-naturalgas-production-at-china-plant.html
01/11/16 07:05 AM EST
By Brian Spegele

BEIJING--Chevron Corp. and China National Petroleum Corp. have launched commercial production at a long delayed natural-gas project in southwest China, the Chinese company said in a statement.

CNPC, the state-owned parent of publicly traded PetroChina Co. (601857.SH), said in a statement on its website Monday that the companies had begun production at well-A at the Luojiazhai gas field in China's southwest region of Chongqing on Dec. 30. Chevron didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

The new production is part of a larger project known as Chuandongbei, and production at the Luojiazhai field--the first phase of development--will reach 3 billion cubic meters of gas a year, according to the statement.

The project, which has faced repeated delays and cost overruns since the companies signed a production-sharing contract in 2007, will require an investment of $6.4 billion, Chevron has said.

Chevron holds a 49% stake in the project and serves as operator, while CNPC holds the remainder.


Write to Brian Spegele at [e-mail]


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 11, 2016 07:05 ET (12:05 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

[Myself °¿°]

1/2 position order for UGAZ @2.58

[Myself °¿°]

~In 1/2 position UGAZ @2.58

[Myself °¿°]

...Thats the way I'm playing it so I...
...hope this is what's happening

Two weeks ago, 12/29/15 natgas made a new high and I shorted it via DGAZ.
The following day, natgas fell sightly over 8%. I had 9k gains and I thought I was well on my way south with an excellent short entry position and I didn't take the gains. ugh

It dawned on me last night...
...the same thing is happening this week.
I have the, -8% (from the previous high) annotated "white" with drawing alerts, where I'll add to UGAZ.
I did manage to pick up 405 DGAZ @10.35 It's not enough to fully hedge my 11k shares of UGAZ but it's something.

[Myself °¿°]

Oh Boy! First call, 180 draw http://geckoicapital.com/expectations

[Myself °¿°]

Global Demand for LNG Drops on Weak Demand in Asia and Increased Production
Demand in China fell for the first time after years of double-digit growth

Comment by Myself °¿° This is for down the road
...Spring Short


Liquefied natural gas storage tanks and a membrane-type tanker are seen at Tokyo Electric Power's Futtsu Thermal Power Station.
LNG shipments fell in 2015, hurt by a second year of lower demand from Asian economies, according to a report.
PHOTO: ISSEI KATO/REUTERS

By CHESTER DAWSON
Jan. 13, 2016 4:00 a.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-demand-for-lng-drops-on-weak-demand-in-asia-and-increased-production-1452675600
Demand for shipments of liquefied natural gas from Asian economies that are the world’s biggest gas importers dropped in 2015, according to a report published Wednesday, including a first-ever decline in China.

Shipments of LNG came to 245 million metric tons last year, or about 33 billion cubic feet a day, even as global production of the super-chilled natural gas rose 1.6% to 250 million metric tons, or 32 billion cubic feet a day, energy consultant Wood Mackenzie said in an annual report on the industry.

The increase in supply comes amid a steep drop in spot market prices in Asia over the past year to below $7 per million British thermal units. Prices may remain depressed with the start of shipments this year from the U.S. Gulf Coast and a ramp-up in gas exports from Australia.

Australia and the U.S. will help boost global LNG production by an estimated 50% over the next five years, which is beyond the capacity of Asia to absorb, Giles Farrer, Wood Mackenzie’s Research Director for Global Gas & LNG supply, said in an interview. “We’re going to have an excess of LNG sloshing around that isn’t going to the traditional LNG markets” in Asia, Mr. Giles said.

Asia represents more than 70% of world-wide demand for LNG, but Wood Mackenzie said demand from the region’s largest buyers dropped in 2015, including a first-ever decline in shipments to China, which dropped more than 1%, after years of double-digit growth. South Korean imports of LNG fell 11% on the year and shipments to Japan, the world’s single largest market, declined 4%, the report said.

That was offset by growing demand from newer importers such as Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan, the report said.

Lower prices for LNG will likely spur increased demand from other markets, including those with under-utilized LNG import capacity, such as the Britain and continental Europe, Mr. Giles said. “New LNG [production] will compete with existing gas pipelines in the European market from suppliers like Norway and Russia,” he said.

Longer-term, lower LNG prices will prompt emerging markets outside of traditional buyers in Asia to build infrastructure needed to import LNG. It can take as little as six months to install a ship-based offshore regasification facility, Mr. Giles said.

Write to Chester Dawson at [e-mail]

[Myself °¿°]

U.S. Natural Gas Storage/Inventory Forecast
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	 
 Jan 14, 2016	10:30	-???B 	-178B	       -113B	 
 Jan 07, 2016	10:30	-113B	-99B	        -58B	 
 Dec 31, 2015	10:30	-58B	-57B	        -32B	 
 Dec 24, 2015	10:30	-32B	-25B	        -34B	 
 Dec 17, 2015	10:30	-34B	-40B	        -76B	 
 Dec 10, 2015	10:30	-76B	-64B	        -53B

More guesses http://geckoicapital.com/expectations
EIA Actual report @10:00 Thurs http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Bottom row third column

[Myself °¿°]

Switching to March futures charts /NGh6...

Natgas Feb contracts decay starting to kick in.
I marked my ugaz entry on the feb chart yesterday. This am it was accurate but now its not.
According to http://www.velocitysharesetns.com/ugaz UGAZ is 40% into the March futures contract

[Myself °¿°]

Need a flipflop extended weather forecast like we were getting every other day, two weeks ago.

[Myself °¿°]

Placed a bid for the stop hunters @UGAZ 1.93...
That would put me all in

[Myself °¿°]

canceled the buy but being stubborn at the moment...

[Myself °¿°]

chart: Cold is coming. Leave the gap behind...

I can't believe I did this again.

[Myself °¿°]

~dumped slightly more than 1/2 at the close... of futures trading
@ ugaz 1.90
cost basis for the remaining 11k shares is 2.27

natgas has been kicking my !@#$%^&* lately

[Myself °¿°]

stockcharts: 3 charts; [working_1_month], [static_gap 2.09] & [static_gap 1.996]

TDA /NG chart closed @2.141 yesterday. Use /NG fore accurate price

working 1 month chart updates end of day


static chart showing close price gap of 2.09


static chart showing close price gap of 1.996

[Myself °¿°]

~hedged UGAZ with DGAZ @14.30 to [the_2.09_gap-]
I wanted and was waiting for /ng + 1% but it wouldn't go up that high so I got a late start hedging off ugaz this am
Looking for /ng volume spike for my exit

[Myself °¿°]

DGAZ scalps...
I missed taking 1k gains twice at /ng gap line "touched it twice"
so I started scalping the 1 and 5 min Bbands
sold initial 15.30 buy and made 4 small scalps
took home 882.81
4th was a partial fill.. still holding some that did not sell.
wish I wasn't

[Myself °¿°]

U.S. Natural Gas Storage/Inventory Forecast -206b...
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	 
 Jan 21, 2016	10:30	-??? 	-206B	        -168B	 
 Jan 14, 2016	10:30	-168B	-178B	        -113B	 
 Jan 07, 2016	10:30	-113B	-99B	        -58B	 
 Dec 31, 2015	10:30	-58B	-57B	        -32B	 
 Dec 24, 2015	10:30	-32B	-25B	        -34B	 
 Dec 17, 2015	10:30	-34B	-40B	        -76B

More guesses http://geckoicapital.com/expectations
eia reporting 10:30 Thursday http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
bottom row 3rd column

[Myself °¿°]

~In DGAZ @15.2960 @/ng +2% from previous close

[Myself °¿°]

5to5pacific trade time restrictions suck; been trying to close dgaz @ 15.68 all am.
I wanted to reload it but haven't been given the chance.
...considering a [ cancel ] dgaz sell order

[Myself °¿°]

U.S. Natural Gas Storage/Inventory Forecast -184b...
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	 
 Jan 21, 2016	10:30	-???B 	-184B	        -168B	 
 Jan 14, 2016	10:30	-168B	-178B	        -113B	 
 Jan 07, 2016	10:30	-113B	-99B	        -58B	 
 Dec 31, 2015	10:30	-58B	-57B	        -32B	 
 Dec 24, 2015	10:30	-32B	-25B	        -34B	 
 Dec 17, 2015	10:30	-34B	-40B	        -76B

More guesses http://geckoicapital.com/expectations
eia reporting 10:30 Thursday http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
bottom row 3rd column

[Myself °¿°]

too tight, stopped ~out dgaz @15.86

[Myself °¿°]

~In dgaz @14.40 seeHowItGoes

[Myself °¿°]

stopped out dgaz 14.93 tight stop

[Myself °¿°]

scalped dgaz 15.67 to 15.79

[Myself °¿°]

/NGh6 1hr: Feb expires today. I'd like to see a spike above the 300ma blue...
somewhere between yesterday's premarket high (2.216) and (2.228)
for a dgaz scalp to yesterday's close 2.159
orange ma=200, blue ma=300, purple ma=500...
http://tos.mx/wm5cUQ

[Myself °¿°]

U.S. Natural Gas Storage/Inventory Forecast -207...
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

 Release Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	 
 Jan 28, 2016	10:30	 -???B	-207B	        -178B	 
 Jan 21, 2016	10:30	-178B	-184B	        -168B	 
 Jan 14, 2016	10:30	-168B	-178B	        -113B	 
 Jan 07, 2016	10:30	-113B	-99B	        -58B	 
 Dec 31, 2015	10:30	-58B	-57B	        -32B	 
 Dec 24, 2015	10:30	-32B	-25B	        -34B

More guesses http://geckoicapital.com/expectations -202 to -215 so far
10:30 release http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html bottom row 3rd column

[Myself °¿°]

/NGh6 2.22? I'm selling my remaining ugaz into euphoria today if it comes... hopefully I can hit the top... out
I'd like to see a +/- 5% swing from premarket to euphoric /NGh6 2.22

[Myself °¿°]

closed_ugaz and picked up some dgaz_@14.37 when /NGh6 spiked through the 300ma blue
we'll see how it goes

[Myself °¿°]

Sunday /NGh6 nears 2.184gap. Currently trading under resistance/support-2.228...
Sunday evening /NGh6 nears Thursday's 2.184 gap.
It will not be considered a gap fill until regular hrs trading when/if it does.
After nearing the gap it bumped it's head on the prievious resistance (12/30/15 low 2.228) and what could have been support as of Friday...
(2.228) looks like resistance again.
But I do not doubt a 2.25 attempt

See EIA's Prices/Demand/Supply report. Natural gas markets weather storm.
Specificly: Production rises and Consumption falls
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=120195598

4charts:

5min


15min


1hr


4hr

[Myself °¿°]

~In 1/4 position of UGAZ @1.40

[Myself °¿°]

I have a stop-hunter bid @ugaz 1.34 1/4 position

[Myself °¿°]

holding 1/2 a dgaz position @17.95 overnight

[Myself °¿°]

$natgas D/W/M bband ma, ema, rsi

[Myself °¿°]

1/4 position bid for UGAZ @1.04 ext/gtc