Because nat gas is getting killed badly now, and subsequently will have the warm weather we are having (above average for this time of year) and the supply increase priced in long before this year end.
and to the contrary of your idea of January, that time Jan-Feb is usually the peak of winter seasonality. So I would not presume nat gas bottoms there. More like by November or perhaps December based on what is going on.
I'm also factoring in the rig counts that have declined a lot, which eventually in months to come should have an affect on nat gas production, and also factoring the increased demand eventually from the upcoming exports of LNG/CNG.
So keeping all this in mind as I have mentioned before, that Nat Gas bottoming is approx the best time frame for determining SXC best entry point, relevant to the fact Coal competes wiht cheaper Nat Gas.
Thus far SXC has already blown away my low-ball targets I've posted on SXC in the past. My low a week ago I anticipated possible, etc, was thinking 4.80, and it is much lower than that already.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
