Replies to post #39964 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[OldAIMGuy]

Thanks JD, Re: Market Risk............................

Another market risk indicator I follow is now in its 7th week of being in
the bottom 10% of its continuous database since 1982. In other words,
according to this indicator, market risk has been higher than now at least
90% of the time.

While this is quite a bit more bullish than is the current v-Wave indicator
the v-Wave is scaled based upon the 1974 December market low. This other
indicator is currently showing a reading that is consistent with the low
risk period in late 2011 and early 2012. (2011 and 2012 is a more typical
correction than was either 1994 or 2008-09)

Last week 3 of the four components of that other indicator were bullish.
This week just 2. Whether the correction is over or now only the gurus are
willing to guess. However, statistically it would appear that there is now
more upside potential than any time since around the first quarter of 2012.

While this doesn't mean there is NO market risk, it does indicate that
it has contracted significantly since around mid-year. (peaked at 44%
cash mid-year and is now showing 26% cash for individual company stocks)