AISC should not be used. Even if they took out depreciation, all of those additional items dont grow equally with produced ounces in the denominator (which will be increasing each quarter. sustaining capital is in there which wont be as high per new ounce as you have assumed. Everything including G&A will be spread thinner. You have no scale economies and your timing is off. Plus sustaining capital is a buffer which may or may not be used. All of the exploration will be cut if need be and G&A would be reduced. The timing of these expenses are not the same. Payables are probably much longer than 90 days. Receivables are almost instantaneous for an easily transported commodity like gold. you are looking at annual numbers and think these all just flow simultaneously. They will squeeze their suppliers a lot if necessary and they will happily accept because they will get nada in BK court. Could easily push the to 180 days.
plus USD is strengthening against the east african currencies, so when they sell the gold in USD and pay expenses or loans in regional currency they will get a benefit
Plus oil is down and diesel fuel is down 30% from 1H of 2015 which is a major % of their operating cost, so you cant extrapolate old numbers
Loans will definitely be renegotiated on better terms. What would you do if you were the bank and saw improving condiions?
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