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bostonseb

10/01/15 1:43 PM

#41562 RE: OhManIDied #41552

They may do another forward sale or amendment to the Namoya streaming deal to raise more cash and buy a little more time in their race against the clock to build cash reserves before Q1 2017 and bonds are due, but at some point, especially after you have reached commercial prod. on your 2 operating mines, you must demonstrate an ability to generate more cash from operations that your liabilities cost you. You can defer payments for some time, but at some point, you have to face the music and understand that you can't defer paying your debts any longer on the expectation (or hope) that gold will skyrocket tomorrow and solve all your problems in a few weeks.
At one point, it actually becomes counter-productive for the company to sell forward its gold or agree to a larger streaming deal, as it loses all upside potential on that part of its future production and makes its future outlook bleaker and bleaker. There is a point where it is in the best interest of the company to give up its fight and negotiate with its creditors to restructure, give out its new equity to the bondholders, and emerge as a stronger company with a lower debt load, and some potential to actually benefit from a gold bull market in the future without having given away all the future appreciation potential of its resources to the likes of Gramercy in the form of streaming deals and forward sales.
When that point in time comes for the company depends on what gold will do in the following months, but it is somewhere in the next year for sure. If the situation doesn't materially improve within six months, I believe management will have to give up.
To quote another comment that was made, "predicting bankruptcy in the next year is a very bold call". I don't think so. Assuming a $0.16 stock may go bankrupt is probably the opposite of being bold, and is what the consensus is telling you. The real bold call is thinking the company will magically recover, start accumulating cash, and trade at 1$+ within a few months (6-7 times its current price or higher). Now THAT's a ballsy call my friend. To make that call, you must be having some information or insight that the rest of the market hasn't seen or come to, and if you believe that this magic bullet is the announcement of Namoya going commercial, I believe it is a bit foolish. This has been telegraphed and anyone following this stock at all is aware of this.
Anyway, just my opinion. Good luck.