Aloha PBK - I believe GE would need to request a listing on a lower tier market. It seems more likely he will ask for the extension though or simply take what is left of DRYS private.
Less than 3 weeks remaining to find out what the plan is and frankly I have no idea what that may be. His ego is big enough though that it seems unlikely he will let DRYS become delisted. Assuming that is correct, DRYS seems destined to finish the year without any ships and just holding cash and ORIG shares. That picture does open a lot of doors going forward though. My own estimation is the dry bulk industry is looking at a difficult 18-24 month period while the various commodity markets find their footing and the world economy improves. 2017 should turn out to be a relatively good year for dry bulk, but a lot of water to swim through between now and then.
Just entirely speculating now - if GE does nothing beyond place orders for a couple of Valemax ships with delivery in 2018 or so, contracts them out to Cosco/Vale, the future prospects for DRYS would be pretty good a few years out. In the mean time, oil is moving up and depending on which "expert" one wants to believe in, oil will be trading higher, which in turn will lift ORIG. I believe ORIG's pps will be much higher this time next year and their dividend could be back late 2017. In this scenario, 2017-2018 would be good years for DRYS shareholders.
There are any number of paths DRYS can take though:
1) Become a private company (not a really good scenario for current investors)
2) Request extension from NASDAQ. This would necessarily be followed up with a 1:10 RS. By year end, the shares will simply follow ORIG's valuation very much as they are now
3) List on the NASDAQ Capital Market. No RS would be needed, but this is a less liquid environment and could be problematic for shareholders. It would at least continue trading. Once circumstances improved, GE could relist on the NASDAQ.
There is another option that I have seen discussed where DRYS would fold into ORIG. All of DRYS assets will soon be cash and ORIG shares and it does seem to be in the realm of possibility. Considering how self-serving GE is, I don't see this as an option he would elect. He currently controls ORIG with the shares he and DRYS own. There is a bit of confusion between the percentage of total shares DRYS and GE own versus what percentage of voting shares each owns. Consider that all of the 22+ million shares ORIG bought back from DRYS are treasury shares and non-voting and the picture changes dramatically. GE actually controls 54% of the voting shares. Is he going to change that balance and lose control of ORIG? Probably not.
I am sure there are other scenarios that could be identified and these are just a few that I have given some thought to. Hopefully GE is planning the extension route. Should that be the case, once it is announced I believe the pps will double as this is a big risk to shareholders right now.
Time will tell soon enough...
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