Indiplon CC post-mortem:
NBIX’s Gary Lyons said PFE has spent $400-500M to date on the Indiplon program and that only $10-30M will be needed from this point forward to get Indiplon approved by the FDA in all doses. Ether PFE strongly disagrees with the $10-30M range cited by Lyons, or PFE thinks Indiplon will be one of the biggest dogs in history.
Given the mammoth DTC spend that will likely be needed to penetrate the U.S. insomnia market, the lack of a strongly differentiated label, and the potential for only one dose with a maintenance indication, PFE’s assessment about the U.S. market potential does not seem bizarre. However, I’m somewhat surprised that PFE doesn’t think Indiplon is worth pursing internationally
I just checked the boards on SI and saw that some posters are predicting that PFE will now buy SEPR. I think this is nuts because PFE is known to have a 180-day non-compete clause with NBIX upon termination of the Indiplon partnership.
On SI, the assertion was made that PFE’s merely starting the ball rolling on a merger with SEPR would not be considered competing with NBIX. Again, I think this is nuts. It’s the kind of talk I would expect to see (and did see) on Yahoo, but not on SI.
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