Replies to post #235690 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[md1225]

Great post!

[itsabouttime]

Paul enough developments have been lined up or are in the making as you have stated to ensure probable success. Excellent POST.

[PPHMVERYLONG]

"One other point of interest, in view of the very advanced development stage Bavituximab has reached, the highly negative opinion we see at this time is puzzling. Why?"


The answer is obvious. All this might be true but the market thinks these things do not make the drug more likely to succeed. We still have no major trials where it succeeded(botched trial does not count). And since no cash deal, W.S. believes the biotech community does not think the data compelling or a partnership would have happened long ago. That is why a cash partnership was essential and since it will not happen until positive Phase III data is realized if ever, we are dead for the time being. Remember I said, nothing for 2015. And since we are moving into the 4th qtr., you must admit I will probably be correct.

[biopharm]

Some things about Peregrine are debatable. Some things are not:

1. Peregrine management has been pushing Bavituximab toward commercialization as hard as their, i.e. our, resources permit for years.

2. They managed to save the 2nd Line NSCLC trial despite the major screw up by CSM.

3. They managed to get Phase III trial approval and fast track status for Bavi from the FDA.

4. They have launched a worldwide 160 site Phase III trial. A trial "on track" to complete about 600 patient enrollment this year. Management has told us they expect early look-ins at the data mid-2016 and unblinding of the data by year end 2016.

5. Their confidence in Bavi has prompted them to have it evaluated by Memorial Sloan Kettering.

6. BMY and AstraZeneca are interested in how Bavi interacts with their immune-oncology drugs.

7. Peregrine has managed to fund this process for years. It is dilutive but at least they have managed it without entering into the death spiral pipeline financing I have seen elsewhere.

8. Their Avid arm continues to grow capacity, revenues and profits.

Does the above guarantee success? No. Does it look promising? I like it. I like that the moment of truth is coming in months. The Sunrise trial could prove Bavi's worth or lack of same by mid-2016. At any time less rigorous ongoing trials in other cancers might prompt a risk taking BP to gobble up Peregrine.

One other point of interest, in view of the very advanced development stage Bavituximab has reached, the highly negative opinion we see at this time is puzzling. Why? Don't know. Personally, I like the buy low, sell high explanation is involved.

We will soon see.

GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,

Paul

Paul.... excellent post and I agree 100% that I have no idea why so many would try and extort so to speak and portray a negative opinion in a company that is trying to help millions of people from cancer, viral disease and hundreds of autoimmune diseases..etc.

I think its easy to tell why and most realize it

[realist1]

RE "in view of the very advanced development stage Bavituximab has reached, the highly negative opinion we see at this time is puzzling."

I'll explain it to you Paul.
Even investors interested in Bavi would prefer NOT to be diluted massively.
Therefore they would rather wait until phase 2/3 data is closer.
Too many negative forces in the stock now.
Trend is bad, market is bad, tax loss selling season, and worst of all the massive cloud of dilution hanging overhead (do not underestimate the power of this to turn investors off). Plus the negative compounding effect of all the above. Real negatives NOW and your Bavi positives are much later. PPHM is to the market a "don't buy yet" stock.
That means it goes lower. Watch, it's been happening. It will continue to happen.

Want to give the stock reason to go even lower? Vote for proposal #3.