Replies to post #31748 on T/A ETF AND INDEX

[POKERSAM]

It all depends. IMO we are in a wave 2 off the low of 1911.
We have bounced to 1931 in what could be three waves.
The 20% wave 2 retrace requirement has been met.
So wave 2 could be over and we go down in 3.
On the other hand a wave 2 retraces 1 by 50% to 61.8% 73% of the time. This would mean we go higher to finish wave 2.

So since the odds favor going higher to finish 2, that has to be what to expect.

If you always expect the most common and usual outcome you will usually be right. You will not always be right but you will usually be right.

So the key to success in EWP follows this order.

A. Know where you are in the wave count.
B. Know the rules and guide lines that govern where you are.
c. Know the percentage of probability of the possibilities.

I might add that gut feelings do not count and common technical analysis in support is a good thing.