Replies to post #94215 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[RealDutch]

So we can actually calculate the cash slow for SIAF in 2020/2021

Cost = Capex = 70% of $363M = $254M

Benefit =
(1) CA resale (15% gross) of 1,737M = $260M
(2) 30% consultancy = 30% of $363M = $109M
(3) 55% ownership = 55% of $216M pos cash flow = $119M
Total benefit = $488M

Difference = +$234M

There is still a delay in getting paid for consultancy, but you can see that the project is generating good cash for us. And the crucial aspect in all of this is CA (resale). So even if we own only 25%, the cash flow situation may actually improve. Let's check those numbers and compare with the $234M

Cost = Capex = (70/55) * 25% of $363M = $115M

Benefit =
(1) CA resale (15% gross) of 1,737M = $260M
(2) 69% consultancy = 69% of $363M = $250M
(3) 25% ownership = 25% of $216M pos cash flow = $54M
Total benefit = $564M

Difference = +$449M

So you can see that from a cash flow perspective (in 2020/2021) we should own 25%. Makes it kind of a tough choice, doesn't it :-)