Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 8/31 2015 EOD
We opened lower on a normal-sized block of 58.6K @ $0.39 and had a wide-swing five-minute period until bids and offers finally began to narrow. Then we went flat through 9:40 in a $0.395-$0.40 range. 9:41-10:38 began with a gap down to $0.39, another drop to $0.385 and halting rise up through 9:58 to the $0.391-$0.3950 range, where it traded on low volume through the rest of the period. 10:39-10:53 was a low-volume flat period with a one-minute drop to $0.3924 on 10K at 10:48 followed by moving right back up into the range. 10:54-11:19 began with a relatively high-volume 4-minute period that moved price up to $0.405 on 114.6K shares, in aggregate, held very flat through 11:03 and dropped to $0.3982 at 11:05 and went flat through the rest of the period at $0.3998-$0.40. 11:20-11:49 did a series of "stair steps" upward, on mostly low volume but for 51K 11:38-11:40 and the 90K minute at 11:43, to achieve $0.418 at the period's end. 11:50-12:11 went flat on low volume in the range of $0.4149-$0.4163. 12:12-12:26 dropped down to $0.4098, on low volume, and went sideways in the range of $0.41-$0.4102 beginning at 12:15, on generally low volume. 12:27-13:11 began with a 13.4K drop to $0.406 and a recovery back to $0.4099. It then traded flat in the range of $0.4092-$0.41 on low volume from 12:30 to the end of the period. 13:12-13:46 started with a 73.1K two-minute pop to $0.415 and then traded sideways, on very low volume right at that range through 13:17 before opening the spread a bit and trading $0.4116-$0.4115 on slowly rising lows through 13:27, when the highs dropped down to meet the lows then at $0.4138 and go sideways, $0.4139-$0.4141 for the rest of the period. 13:47-14:16 began with a low-volume drop to $0.4073 by 13:49 and then flattened out by 13:53 at $0.4101-$0.4102 on very low volume for the rest of the period, with only one low-volume (700 shares) excursion to $0.4074 at 14:14. But it was a precursor as 14:17-14:40 open the spread, on low volume again, an trading range was $0.4079-$0.41, on low volume with again-rising lows that eventually narrowed the spread to $0.4099-$0.41 through the period end. 14:41-15:19 began with a low volume move to $0.409, recovered and began making repeated lows at $0.4051 at 14:48 and traded $0.4051-$0.409 on low volume with the lows again rising, very briefly, and then the highs falling until the spread became $0.4052-$0.4059. At last the bids dropped to $0.4003 and there was no trading for a minute or two. 15:20-15:29 began with a drop to $0.4003 on little volume and immediately began to "consolidate" in the $0.4027-$0.4029 range, where it traded for the rest of the period on low volume. 15:30-15:52 began with a drop to $0.40 and recovery to $0.4012-$0.4019 by 15:50 with lows and highs converging towards $0.4113. 15:53-close had the typical volatility but with reduced volume and traded $0.4012-$0.405 with reducing highs. We closed on a very small sell of 2,251 shares for $0.4016.
We had two AH trades totaling 1,220 at 16:37 for $0.4020 and $0.4045, 610 shares each.
There were not as many larger trades as yesterday, which accounted for ~20% of a high-volume day. The reduction would be expected with volume down -48.65%. The larger block trades (>= 20K plus one 19.8K) were back to a more normal level today. Including the opening block we had five totaling 162,230, 13.35% of day's volume at a VWAP of $0.4019. Excluding the opening block we had four totaling 103,600, 8.52% of day's volume, with a VWAP of $0.4086 09:30:00 $0.3900 58,630
10:54:34 $0.4000 20,000
10:57:21 $0.4000 25,000
11:43:07 $0.4179 38,900
13:13:35 $0.4100 19,700
Another more normal thing today appears to be the intra-day VWAPs, which rose and fell instead of generally being straight up, and the buy percentages of the various periods, which peaked shortly after the effects of the opening volatility had abated and generally weakened to a level consistent with a small VWAP increase (see below). Ending Period Period- Period- Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Period
Period Volume --Low-- --High- Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:40 103555 $0.3900 $0.4099 $40,612.03 $0.3922 8.52% 10.50% Incl. 09:30 $0.3900 58,630
10:38 174991 $0.3850 $0.3954 $68,283.33 $0.3902 14.40% 31.80%
10:53 36800 $0.3924 $0.3989 $14,665.60 $0.3985 3.03% 44.21%
11:19 144539 $0.3981 $0.4050 $57,894.62 $0.4005 11.89% 52.94% Incl. 10:54 $0.4000 20,000 10:57 $0.4000 25,000
11:49 191615 $0.3999 $0.4180 $79,122.30 $0.4129 15.77% 59.01% Incl. 11:43 $0.4179 38,900
12:11 81333 $0.4149 $0.4163 $33,841.75 $0.4161 6.69% 57.32%
12:26 73548 $0.4098 $0.4159 $30,191.22 $0.4105 6.05% 56.14%
13:11 64306 $0.4060 $0.4100 $26,326.21 $0.4094 5.29% 55.62%
13:46 129164 $0.4097 $0.4150 $53,209.60 $0.4120 10.63% 55.50% Incl. 13:13 $0.4100 19,700
14:16 32100 $0.4073 $0.4140 $13,185.21 $0.4108 2.64% 55.05%
14:40 31730 $0.4079 $0.4101 $13,000.29 $0.4097 2.61% 54.80%
15:19 57003 $0.4050 $0.4091 $23,134.32 $0.4058 4.69% 53.50%
15:29 9100 $0.4003 $0.4050 $3,659.78 $0.4022 0.75% 53.29%
15:52 47250 $0.4000 $0.4030 $18,977.93 $0.4016 3.89% 53.08%
16:00 33147 $0.4012 $0.4050 $13,344.52 $0.4026 2.73% 53.07%
16:37 1220 $0.4020 $0.4045 $491.97 $0.4033 0.10% 53.02%
On the traditional TA front we had a lower open, low, high, and close (-2.31%) on volume off 48.65%. We traded below the $0.42 resistance all day and closed below the $0.41 resistance as well. The trade range was completely inside yesterday's range. Combined with reducing volume we are either starting a little sideways consolidation or beginning a short re-trace. Of note is that we closed below my potential descending resistance denoted by the white line on my minimal chart. This gives it three challenges, including yesterday when we closed above it, to go with the origin, meaning it is apparently valid because the close above yesterday did not confirm with today's close. We are into the area of that triangle were a break becomes likely, so it's worth keeping an eye on it.
On my one-year chart, we closed right at the long-term descending resistance, AFAICT, while continuing to trade above the 50-day SMA, $0.3805. The 10 and 20-day SMAs have crossed above the 50-day, which is positive. Our trading range was slightly above the Bollinger band's mid-point, ~$0.3878 today (see VWAP below). The oscillators I watch went back to mixed mode with slight weakening in RSI, Williams %R, momentum, and ADX-related while slight improvement was seen in the MFI (untrusted by me) and stronger strengthening in the full stochastic.
In aggregate, with volume considered as well, it looks like at best a sideways move for a short while. It's also possible this is the start of a move lower, but it's really too soon to determine that.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a normal market behavior, and the magnitudes seem normal as well. Short percentage is right near the low end of my preferred range (needs re-check). Price spread shrunk but is still a bit high on a day with reduced volume and VWAP giving up almost all of its upward momentum. Although not the predictor of dire movements when spread is wide and in a down trend, I'm thinking this, combined with reducing buy percentage and volume, is telling us some near-term weakness is here. Sideways or slightly lower seems most likely ATM.
In aggregate, sideways seems most likely but I am suspicious that we might take a look at the mid-$0.37 range again and hopefully not lower.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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