That is one view...
Another view is that they are VIX driven and there is still a lot of FUD (rightly so)...hence no movement. At this point, it is still undecided if that large degree structure is 123 or and abc. Even if and when it hits projections (2007?), it is such an area that it is 50/50 on the question. There can be no certainty until that large degree structure makes a 4 (area of previous lesser 4?). Actually, there is no certainty until there is a new ATH...but that it not a debate for 5/15 charts.<g>
That is where historical events (charts) have to flavor judgement. What has happened each and every UVXY spike? Is it going to be different this time? Could be...but the odds are....that there is going to be a lot of tequila swilling before we can answer that!
JMHO, of course!
Edit - do a little digging on XIV buying level by institutional buyers.