David,
ERHE used a portion of its rights as currency to negotiate full carries. Any scenario where ERHE loses its rights also strips the rights from Sinopec, Anadarko, and Addax.
That's just not gonna happen. IMO, the absolute worst case is CVX/XOM really tries this and the whole mess ends up in court for a decade.
Every time ERHE has been beaten down it has come back with a better deal than it had. CVX/XOM really may be chewing off their own foot here.
I'm sure Offer is in the ear of Obasanjo about cutting CVX/XOM out of the picture. They're just causing too much trouble.