Replies to post #39114 on Banro Corp. fka BAA

[TeamTOC]

Nice...Well you must rate higher than me...He cc'd no one in his reply to me. I'm sure many are asking the same questions, but I'm glad to hear Inst Own is still estimated to be 20-30%, and not declining.

[bostonseb]

Thank you to those who have posted the responses they have received from IR.
After these comments, here's my take for all it's worth.

I maintain my view that they will most likely (if not certainly) raise additional cash this quarter in some way. The email actually does not exclude that: "As for the bond payment: we have flexibility to allocate capital and take other steps to ensure that financial obligations are met as we move through the rest of the year."

From my estimates, the cash shortfall is significant enough that while they may be able to squeeze by this quarter in some way by running up their accounts payable, I think it is too tight and they will raise cash, probably 20M+. They may be ok raising 10M through another forward sale like in April, but again, that may be just kicking the can down the road a couple of months, and I believe they will want to address the funding situation more definitively with something in the range of 20-30M.

The options I see and my best guess as to how they would do that:
1/ a stock offering: unlikely and very difficult at these levels. Raising 20+M would be very hard, and result in crushing dilution. I don't believe they will do that.
2/ if they can get another small 10M local loan, could be a combo of such a loan + one forward sale @ 10M as well to raise 20M.
3/ my best guess and what I would expect: an amendment to the Namoya streaming deal with Gramercy. This is what would allow to raise the most upfront cash. The previously announced deals (with GH and then Gramercy) initially planned for a 10% stream, which was then reduced to 8.33% at closing. The company was thus willing to sacrifice a greater percentage of its Namoya prod. With Namoya coming commercial if they are on schedule, I can see an amendment to the stream up to 12-15% range. I view this as the most logical place to go for additional funds.
This additional percentage may allow raising anywhere from 20-40M, depending on the payments negotiated on delivery ($150/oz before, likely to stay the same).

This is obviously pure speculation on my part. We will see. Just my best guess based on all the information at hand.