It's been a long while since I've really followed this board closely or posted...but I always keep my eye on the ticker. I think you're 100% correct in your assessment. I saw the pop this week and unloaded my shares. Been holding shares at various levels since November, held through the R/S with a post-R/S asp of .75...averaged down to .53/share and got out Monday @.42 for a minimal loss.
I still have faith in this company and do believe Dan has ECIG on the right track, however. The foundations have been laid for ECIG to have a strong future, but there just is no way I see the Q2 numbers being better than lackluster at best. IMO there will be good fundamental improvement, especially in the books regarding debt and cost reduction. The market will still see big losses though, so MM's and others will again drive the price down, despite those who have followed ECIG closely will notice the marked improvements. IMO we will see the price fall to the .20-25 range again after Q2.
Depending on the story the Q2 numbers tell (and I think it will be significantly improved one) I'll likely get back in. My plan is to wait 30 days to lock the loss in for taxes and get back in at the lower prices. If the Q2 numbers suggest Dan has accomplished the framework that many of us believe, I fully expect this to be $1 after Q3 #'s and could be $3-$4 by this time next year.
Again, this is all IMO but GLTA here on the board, especially the longs who have gritted out through all the tough times....I see bright skies on the horizon for Q3 and Q4!