I have been invested in this company for over 2 years. I am not angry and I have read everything that could be read about this suit including the fact that Susman is pursuing the suit on contingency and they have a phenomenal track record when it comes to patent suits. Now you come along and question everything that has been going on for years and make a prediction of sub penny. Why? What do you know that all the other shareholders do not know?
Author’s reply » It's very difficult to predict or explain stock prices, so I'll leave that to the market. I can try to estimate Worlds' intrinsic value though, based on their patent portfolio and its potential.
If the Markman ruling is favorable to Worlds, in particular, if no claims are invalidated, Activision's risk of losing at jury trial increases substantially. Trying to estimate how much Activision might be on the hook for is involved. Since Worlds' patents are in force from Sep 24, 2013 to Nov 12, 2016, if Activision is found infringing on Worlds' patents, the infringing revenue from the World of Warcraft and Call of Duty franchises may exceed $7 billion.
If we account for probability of winning at trial, potential settlement, contingency fees, shares outstanding, current debt, net operating loss, reasonable royalty rate, potential enhanced damages, tax rate, p/e ratio, etc, Worlds' pre-trial intrinsic value from just the Activision case is around $1.75/share.
A favorable Markman ruling opens the door to additional lawsuits against other major game publishers. It's estimated that the top 8 publishers will generate about $20 billion in infringing revenue during just the time Worlds' patents are in force. If Worlds decides to pursue these publishers, Worlds' pre-trial intrinsic value would be somewhere north of $3.00/share.