Many in the U.S. intelligence community feel strongly that Pollard should not be released prematurely: In 1998, George J. Tenet, then director of the CIA, apparently scuppered a deal with Israel on Pollard by threatening to resign if the spy went free.
There have been a number of arguments that Pollard's spying was actually far more damaging than others care to admit. In 1999 Seymour Hersh wrote an article for the New Yorker that argued Pollard's information may have ended up with the Soviet Union. Hersh spoke to experts who said the information was used:
... in exchange for continued Soviet permission for Jews to emigrate to Israel. Other officials go further, and say that there was reason to believe that secret information was exchanged for Jews working in highly sensitive positions in the Soviet Union. A significant percentage of Pollard’s documents, including some that described the techniques the American Navy used to track Soviet submarines around the world, was of practical importance to the Soviet Union.
In an op-ed for The Washington Post written in 1998, former past directors of naval intelligence, William Studeman, Sumner Shapiro, John L. Butts and Thomas Brooks argued that as Pollard's case never went to trial (due to his plea deal), it never became public that Pollard "offered classified information to three other countries before working for the Israelis and that he offered his services to a fourth country while he was spying for Israel." The op-ed also argued that the "sheer volume" of documents passed on by Pollard was almost unrivaled, and his support was only due to a "clever public relations campaign."
Even now, while his supporters portray Pollard as an ideologue, other critics in the United States point to reports of his drug abuse and history of grandiose lies. In 2013, Bret Stephens of the Wall Street Journal minced no words when he argued that Pollard's release is, in fact, not in Israel's interests:
It does not help Israel to make a hero of a compulsive liar and braggart, fond of cocaine, who violated his oaths, spied on his country, inflicted damage that took billions of dollars to repair, accepted payment for his spying, jeopardized Israel's relationship with its closest ally, failed to show remorse at the time of his sentencing, made himself into Exhibit A of every anti-Semitic conspiracy nut, and then had the chutzpah to call himself a martyr to the Jewish people.
What's happening now (and what might happen next)
Over the past few years, the Israeli campaign to release Pollard has gained momentum, with Netanyahu expressing official support, a number of petitions and protests outside the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv. President Obama repeatedly refused to contemplate releasing Pollard and refused to grant him leave for family emergencies. "As the president," Obama told Israeli television before visiting the country in 2013, "my first obligation is to observe the law here in the United States and to make sure that it's applied consistently."
However, there had been some signs of a shifting position on Pollard, who is now 59 and said to be in poor health. Some unlikely figures, such as Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz), have publicly called for his release. His situation has been complicated by the leaks of Chelsea Manning and Edward Snowden, the latter of whom provided a document that reportedly revealed the NSA may have targeted Netanyahu himself.
In 2014, there were signs that the United States was considering pardoning Pollard to aid the Middle East peace process. The hope appeared to be that if America agreed to release Pollard, Israel might agree to release some Palestinian prisoners or impose a moratorium on new building in disputed territories, key sticking points for the Palestinian negotiators. However, Pollard was not released, and there was little progress made in peace talks.
What is happening now appears to be something different. According to the Justice Department, Pollard will become "eligible for mandatory parole" in November, meaning that Pollard would not need to be pardoned in order to be released. However, the timing of the news – just after the United States and other countries reached a controversial nuclear deal with Iran – has led some to speculate that a future release would be aimed at appeasing Israel.
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