Replies to post #24138 on The New CS Board

[dindindon]

07/27/15 Shanghai composite index

anecdotal key notes: ( in essence )

(1) At the time (June/14) FED gave the clear signal that QE Taper set to completion on October/14. The next major “process” is to “move” the QE hot money from emerging markets back to USA. Ever since that, the USD moved up progressively . Meanwhile, China launched the counter action, activated the strategic buying to pump the stock market via the hands of the “seed-bullet team”. This is a currency war. There is no other reason can explain why the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index (SSEC) can be moved from 2200 to 5100 in such a short period in a slowing economy.

(2) anecdotal “optimized ignition” point is set at 8K (SSEC), at that ignition point the “big hands” will push the button. However, this deliberative game was “screwed” by “middle-size hands” prematurely, now we knew the 5K mark was the cracking point. So, the damage is “smaller” at 5K than 8K.

(3) There were quite a few reasons led the sell-off. But, the Leverage and Off-market asset allocation was the prime reason. Other than ordinary margin and short sell, investors can use house/apartment/valuable asset as the collateral, with about 12% “management” fee, they can engage large leverage in multiple accounts anonymously . The "smart" short sellers were reported hiding in these “second tier” brokerage house, some use cash-equivalents directly. They knew the system weak points, sold short and then covered, pocketed the profit in an invisible way. The good days for "smart" short sellers is coming to an end when China Security Agency announced to Investigate ‘Malicious’ Short Sales . We will get detailed report in the next few months.

(4) Then, China PPT joined the show. The major defending zone is 3.6-3.8K; it is said PPT will leave the market progressively after SSEC bounces back to 4.5K. This is a “white courtesy call”, you show your pokers to players, so the bounce will not reach 4.5K, at least not in a days or weeks. another rumor says when PPT leave, will 'roll over' the profit to the Torch Relayers (public Pension fund and public Health Care fund, big weight player) so these funds will have “front loaded” profit when they enter the market, sounds a good deal.

(5) Big losers are Mo MO gamblers. The following year-to-date (07/08) profit map give you a rough picture how much profit those winners made. When count form SEEC 2.2K, the profit would be even bigger. Off the map, the account holders attached to the off-market-loan-company got 500 billion (Short sellers).

(6) it is premature to give the low target. For fun, based on the latest data, the theoretical E-wave low target is 2379.80. don’t count on this fun guess. President Xi will meet President Obama in coming September, let’s see what kind “deals” they can roll out.


( source: (in Mandarin, No English sub, sorry)

)



The recent China stock market saga offered good swing trade opportunities.

archives

Friday, 07/17/15 11:01:13 AM
The major (bounce) battle zone is 4000 +/- 100. (EDIT actual 4184.45, missed one Fib ratio, see chart)

Thursday, 07/09/15 12:49:34 AM
(1) 3426-3234
(2) 3410-3216
(3) 3324-3121
imho, 3373.54 is in the range of (1) and (2). So, the index might have reached a short term trade-able bottom.

Tuesday, 07/07/15 10:23:02 AM
Getting closer to a critical support, hard to say it will hold or not
chart: http://forexrainbow.com/images/13880981052075238850.jpg

Monday, 06/15/15 10:39:45 PM
FTSE China 50 Index is deteriorating obviously.
any one bought Yang/FXP?
chart: http://forexrainbow.com/images/31897513726341415006.jpg

Wednesday, 04/29/15 05:30:10 PM
the "art" of finding an optimized point.
Chinese stock market goes parabolic due to the intense currency war .....

Wednesday, 07/09/14 03:09:38 PM
End Date Of QE Is Officially In Sight
( FOMC June 17-18, 2014 : If the economy progresses about as the Committee expects, warranting reductions in the pace of purchases at each upcoming meeting, this final reduction would occur following the October meeting. )