Replies to post #2986 on ajtj99's Market Pulse

[ajtj99]

Whatever. We're not going to agree on that one. We'll have our answers soon enough.

[augieboo]

Nobody asked me, but I'm nosey, so here's my theory:

I think a cyclical bull is more like a secular bull than it is like a secular bear, but it also (probably) shares some characteristics with a cyclical bear.

Neither a secular bull nor a secular bear is a single, discrete event.

A secular bull consists of several cyclical bull moves interspersed with cyclical bear moves. Similarly, a secular bear consists of cyclical bear moves interspersed with cyclical bull moves.

The difference, me thinks, is that in a secular bull the bull moves are dominant, i.e., longer and stronger, than the bear moves. Conversely, in a secular bear, the cyclical bull moves should also be dominant, i.e., longer and stronger than the cyclical bull moves.

But the behavior of cyclical bulls and bears should, me thinks, conform to the norms of each species.

What is messing folks up these days is that none of us knows what the first cyclical bull market within a once-in-a-generation Ursa Horribilis looks like.