You are correct it is a guess...No doubt there is a behind the scene action going on. However if you look at the 52 week high this stock was never supposed to be this low. Another theory could be that the management got their corporate act together and its moving to a mosr legitiate stock price in anticipation of not only this one FDA notice but because corporately the company is under valued...On the same token I know not even great stocks go straight up. at most there will be one more up candle before this consolidates w/o news ...I am betting on either a black candle or a small red one based on consolidation. JMHO