From what I see Bolivia has low-to-no value. Mine life is 2 years but they think they can push back the pit so I think 3-4 is reasonable. ORV is "debt-free" since selling their copperwood copper project but they draw on an operating line in Bolivia with local banks as it might be difficult-to-impossible to repatriate cash out of Bolivia? If not they don't want to transfer any cash to Bolivia short-term and look to borrow. The mine is generating some cash flow with AISC of $1059 in FQ215 (Jan-Mar). This AISC is au-equivalent or net of copper/silver by product revenue. Per my earlier posts there is about ~$USD 4M of restricted cash on their Mar 31 BS and decomissioning costs for Bolivia are ~$USD 5M (present value). As you know, decommissioning liabilities are typically accreted to fair value for accounting but since mine life is short the $5M is probably close enough to actual costs.
Basically, Bolivia can just tick along.
One more thing - one of the best Canadian value/contrarian investors "Contra-the-Heard" a newsletter with a 15 year ~19% return has invested since late 2014. Benj Gallangher was on the FQ1 (dec 31) conference call along with CL001 a few months ago asking questions and seeming comfortable holding.
Contra - they are on BNN (Canadian CNN) all the time.
Also - CL001 has invested here since late 2014 when his mantra was "1X EV/EBITDA"
Not sure what mgmt uses for EBITDA as it isn't a metric they disclose but CFOPs before changes in WC typically never lies as a measure of cash flow generation from operations. It was $USD 2.6M for last 3 months and $USD 10M for first six months of fiscal year (Oct-Mar). As mgmt said in FQ2 conference call FQ2 was a tough quarter so $USD 2.6M could be low for the year. EV about $USD 12M currently and they have already generated $10M in CFOPS before WC changes to date this year so there is potentially ORV.TO is trading as low as 0.5X EV/EBITDA.
Don't think Orvana is going anywhere in next week. Market will be watching if the $1140-$1150 area holds again.
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