Replies to post #222003 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[MazelMan]

CP. Let's put a cease fire sign up. I'm a lover not a fighter.

I appreciate your posts and and I extrapolate what seems to be interesting and valuable to me. I would not have you repeat something for the heck of it. In fact I wouldn't want you to waste your time if it wasn't something of importance. Many newbies had questions that they don't ask because it might seem trivial. I remember when I started posting myself.

The fact that interpretation comes into play very often on this board is why JB wrote exactly what he did and I agree with his point of not being able to assure how many patients have been enrolled to this point. I hope your model is correct and when the company states on target that it is based on steady patient enrollment. But to say it is factual of how many isn't good enough for me. There is a reason why so many sites are open and there is no guarantee that every facility has a patient being treated today.

Thanks for reading.

Norffffff

[jbainseky]

What you don't seem to understand is there are two variables, site activation, and enrollment. site activation is of course not linear. Enrollment in your simulation, by itself, is linear. you say the combination of the two is linear. I say it is possible that enrollment portion, by itself, can be non-linear. HWINW - WE DONT KNOW WHAT THE PLAN IS!

Quite simply, I don't know what has happened in other trials, but patterns probably exist, and PPHM likely used such historical data to determine the plan. However, I could easily see where the plan could "expect" faster enrollment as time goes on as doctors tell patients about previous patients experiences. So many variables would go into the plan. To simply assume there is no other rationale for anything other than linear enrollment, is a leap I am not about to make.

FFTT

JBAIN