'Bout time for a fresh abbreviated chart, so here's 1/21-5/22/2015 for reference.
N.B. I suspect the following traditional TA stuff is mostly useless as TA is supposed to gauge sentiment and trading bots have no such component. As explained below, I think MM trading bots are about the only active forces (well, maybe shorters too - covering?) in the $CPST market right now.
The first thing I want to mention is the faux close shown in the red bubble at the right. That was another of our suspicious late-evening single trades. It occurred at 06:42:38 PM: $0.51 x 2000. The trade prior was more than two hours earlier at 16:23:43 $0.5187 x 11,152 shares. The actual close was $0.5187 (16:00 closing block) after a low-volume +1.76% 65.5K rise 15:47-15:57. The open of $0.52) and real close of $0.5187 would give us a second consecutive spinning top candlestick, indicating the indecision that is apparently existing in the market.
I say apparently because I don't think that's the case. From watching stuff as closely as I do I believe it's just what is seen, for the most part, when trading bots run by the market makers do their 1/100th of a penny churn between themselves to scarf trading fees from the exchanges and scalp hundredths of a penny from each other as they arbitrage price dislocations that exist for milli-seconds between the exchanges. Can I prove it? Nope!
However, when combined with the downward channel we are in, the reduced volume, and the complete unresponsiveness (or even a negative response) to multiple occurrences of good PR, it seems certain that the majority of real traders and investors are absent from the $CPST market ATM. Remember that MMs "sell high and then buy low" and price is most easily moved down because of the exemption of the MMs from REG SHO restrictions on naked shorting. Enough on that.
Notice the top-most descending red resistance line is about to converge with the short horizontal resistance which exists at $0.53. Together they form a descending triangle, described by Bulkowsi, which we broke out of along with the trading channel, to the downside. Fortunately we were immediately pushed upward into the descending channel again and got confirmation. This puts price in the position of now having the base of the triangle, ostensibly a former support, now acting as resistance. In another post by Bulkowski I read long ago he noted that breaks often occur again at the apex of triangles and wedges and such. With the apex to be completed Tuesday (the first trading day of the Memorial Day Weekend), we shouldn't be surprised to see another break one way or the other. This seems even more likely with the increased volume, maybe a spike because at ~1.904MM shares it was about double the prior day's ~998.6MM and around 30% above the 10-day average of ~1.48MM the prior day. Spikes often signal a change in trend. Since trend is sideways we can't say up is the next move though if a change does appear.
Let's hope the move, if it comes, is up.
Last thing about this action. As CaptWhizBang confirmed in the recent past we are in short and intermediate consolidation. If we are to remain there, and possibly enter at least long-term consolidation rather than breaking down and out of consolidation, we needed to see price range move back up and hold for a while.
Otherwise the prognosis is not ... optimal!
The oscillators I watch continue in oversold: RSI, MFI, Williams %R and Full Stochastic. Our lows are still pushing the lower Bollinger limit down and this argues for a beginning (someday, maybe) of a reversion to the mid-point, ~$0.5327 today and falling. If it appears soon we have better than an ice-cube's chance in Hell of getting some appreciation. If it doesn't move that way soon, we don't have that better chance IMO.
Now we get to the non-traditional stuff I do.
Yesterday I said I think the best near-term expectations from all this is that we remain in consolidation for at least a (good?) while longer. With the daily short percentage trending(?) closer to my "normal" range (appears to have dropped out of the short-term up-trend I mentioned yesterday), the price spread in a more normal range, and the buy percentage trying to hang around the "balanced" readings area (had weakened again yesterday), we at least have a continuing chance of staying in consolidation. Nothing is strong enough yet to even consider a major break upward as being suggested by this stuff, especially since no trend in that direction is established by my experimental stuff, which is what I want to see.
The one thing that suggests these may be wrong, for now, is the possible trend-ending volume spike. Seeing that volume and seeing daily short-percentage close to normal and buy percentage at least trying to achieve parity with the sell percentage offers the possibility that these indicators, even though not optimal, are trying to tell us that some small move up is likely. If so, I think we remain in consolidation though - no major break upward yet.
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