Replies to post #191461 on Biotech Values

[GrthzGd]

Do you think your projected 80% chance of failure lies in a likelihood of even the 10 mg dose producing an HDL cholesterol increase?

[semi_infinite]

How does your 20% prob compare to market priced prob? I am guessing 100% prob would be around $1k pps but it has a big error bar.

[zipjet]

ICPT's REGENERATE trial has only a 20% chance of succeeding, IMHO.

I don't get it. P-value in the trial ranged from 0.0024 to 0.0002. 35% of patients showed fibrosis REGRESSION. My source suggests that regression of fibrosis is impressive.

Higher LDL's are manageable.

So why do you think the trial has only a 20% chance of success?

ij