I just went through the taped webcast from yesterday. Although there was nothing granular on the financial side of the biz. it's clear that Avenova has a very bright future.
I don't think their estimate for Avenova is nearly high enough. They base the $500 mill. potential on a scenario that 24 million of the 30 million dry eye/blephoritis sufferers buying one bottle a year ($20 wholesale).
As a person in sales most of my life, I think getting 24 million people on board is too high of an expectation. Lets shoot for half of that...12 million.
Next,their conservative estimate that each patient is only buying
one bottle per year is also unrealistic in that it would be a failure if only one bottle was purchased by each patient per year.
I think it would be very realistic that the 12 million (who would be the ones that need it the most out of the 30 million) would be easily buying 4 bottles a year (assuming that they stretch the use of each bottle over a 3 month period).
12 million X $80 (4 bottles @ $20 wholesale)= Just shy of $ 1 Billion. Very doable.
If they can bridge their expenses with the aid of monetizing assets, they would be sitting pretty.
The biggest risk is the time it will take to do that. They might give away the store to make a deal just to get any kind of extra revenue.
I think it will take at least 4 years until they can be profitable with Avenova.
The drug is going to do great...financing their way to profitability is the real issue. Further dilution is looming large.
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