YB, Re: If they don't blame asia and sars wery well this time, then AMD is lieing.
Don't be naive. This would not be the first time that AMD has "stretched the truth" about earnings. Ok, maybe SARS is a little bit responsible, but if it was the only thing, then AMD would have known about it a couple months ago, not now that the disease has practically disappeared.
Rather, I think AMD has run out of gas with Athlon XP, and Opteron is not where it's supposed to be in terms of a ramp. I believe that Intel is taking more market share with products that are simply better at this point in time. Intel has not warned, nor have they ever warned this close to earnings. They are very conservative, and I think they've met their guidance, which will make AMD look pretty pathetic.
Now, here's another prediction: watch for multiple press releases from AMD saying how they've gained market share in particular segments, and ones that list their design wins and make it seem like everything is hunky-dory. That's what happens every time AMD is down. The question is, will the same people buy the same spin again?