Replies to post #5708 on Strategy Central

[FreeMarkets]

Hi Paper,

I'm glad we agree on the fundamental side. It is really just an extension of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Studies have shown that the market is pretty close to semi-strong form efficient. I have a Finance MBA and I buy that logic.

I think the difference on the timing side (or more accurately for me, the trend following side) is that not everyone has the same effect on the market when they buy and sell. The big institutional players have so much money that they can't turn on a dime any more than a big ship can. Also, they leave tracks (volume) because they are so big. They move the market with their size. The theory is that these institutions didn't get big by being on the wrong side of the market.

I am not talking about daily timing but multi-month timing. I am always a little behind by definition (I follow the trend) and I am wrong about 15% of the time. When I am wrong, I don't lose much. On average, I have done pretty well and much better than the S&P500.

To back up a little, I started looking for timing services online after getting raked during the bubble. I looked at hundreds of sites and timingcube was and still is the best in my opinion. Are they perfect? No. Are they the best? No, just the best I could find given my criteria. Can people here on ihub do better? Probably. Can I do better? No. I know my limitations. My gut is almost always wrong. Buy and hold didn't work for me. I found a solution that has worked for me. If others find another way, the best to them.

Take care,
FM