Does make sense to convert Fab 30 but seems risky too. Can they grow enough to fill two fabs?* Anyone care to make a guess how many 65nm/300mm wspm Intel can do compared to AMDs planned 45000?
(* I see the current situation as merely a transition: Fab 36 is still ramping and Fab 30 would have been made obsolete together with 90nm products during next year).
Re: AMD to Invest US$2.5 Billion in Germany to Expand 300mm Microprocessor Production
Since moving to 12" wafers increases the number of chips produced per wafer by 2.25+ (less edge loss), and moving to 65nm doubles capacity per mm2....
Moving to 45K 12" 65nm WSPW from 30K 8" 90nm WSPSW represents growth to about 7 times their current capacity - and they're supplying more than 20% of the market now.
Next year's chips will need a lot more transistors than this year's, and the after even more, plus the market is growing (let's hope!).
Still - this lets AMD go for 40% to 50% of the market while keeping costs and number of employees about where they are today.
And Intel is expanding too.
Looks like a heck of a price war is coming, just a Intel's gross margins have been falling and Intel's cash has been shrinking. Unfortunate timing for Intel - check out what's been happening to their liquid reserves vs. debt. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=INTC Meanwhile, costs have been rising fast: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=INTC&annual
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