Hi Jon, I guess I either misunderstood you or my thinker wasn't working but what I was thinking about was not so much a correction of ~10-20% but a major bull market where things are off more than 25% and maybe even as much as 50-60%. The last correction was 17.6% and the high was about April 25th, 2011 and the low about August 25th.
A 10-20% correction seems likely to me given the sideways market. It has been quite variable. Today of the 1618 ETF/ETNs I've been tracking, 681 were negative, 207 were no change and the rest up. The other day all but 10 were up when I looked and last week about 1400 were down one day.
My guess is that the powers that be would prefer a correction to happen sooner rather than around the election next year, so I'd guess sometime in the next 12 months, and, given history, I'm going to bet somewhere between September 1st and October 31st. Lots of positions took a significant hit right around October 15 last year, but mostly a bit less than 10% so not officially a correction. I think October has a higher probability but who knows? Then there is the old saying about going away in May as nothing much happens over the summer.
Lots of noise and not a lot one can trust among the fear mongers.
Best,
Allen
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