You raise an interesting point,
But if you look at institutional ownership of Banro it is quite low and it is mainly a stock held by average people who are less likely to have received non-public info.
Furthermore, Short Interest a % of float is minuscule compare that with a stock like ANV before it went BK which had something like 40%+ short interest. Granted, certain brokers will not let you sell BAA short but clearly some have considering their is a tiny slice of short interest.
I guess it alot of it all comes down to whether you believe in EMH, personally I don't even believe in weak-form because to accept that you must agree that the Dot-Com bubble was an accurate pricing up until the day it popped.
You're right though, some might not agree with the $2 figure, but sub in a sufficiently high discount factor into you're DCF such that this price makes sense even with a 50% chance of BK and while I haven't run the numbers I assume you're discount factor will be .3<
Cheers