Replies to post #56835 on Apple Inc (AAPL)

[langostino]

not necessarily contarian

Just pointing out probably not worth much one way or the other.

I'm fairly bullish on the MacBook (even though it looks like several purchases in my general universe will get pushed out another quarter or two), and have been of the general belief that when we get Cloverdale/Sossaman next Jan/Feb, and have Conroe and Merom rolling in the last quarter of calendar 2006, Apple could be building some PC sales momentum.

Fingers crossed, Apple will have a full line of Rev B equipment in 1H 2007 with all the kinks worked out, and Apple will have settled on how it wants to settle its full lineup pricing/tiering. And I'm thinking although this zebra won't change its stripes entirely, we might get to see Apple finally doing a few things differently in search of market share.

I realize I'm in the minority among hardcore Mac afficionados in grimacing at the Switch marketing campaign warmed over and served up all over again, but either way, I expect Apple will move on from that by then. In fact, I'm hoping for the momentum to start building with a big honking unit sales number for the MacBooks in Fiscal Q4 ... on the back of a return of the Student Union promotion -- by far Apple's most effective marketing tool in the near-decade since Jobs' return.

(In my defense on the ad campaign, I was similarly alone in my view of the Switch campaign in the immediate emotional shadow of its launch, only to have quite a few come clear of the RDF zone later and agree. Here again, I think people are seriously deluded about the fundamental difference between what is "cool" and what is just quirky, offputting and/or generally just not appealing to the masses, even the "cool kids". There is a reason actor Justin Long has been typecast by Hollywood as the dweeb/loser in his most prominent roles (Ed and Dodgeball). Doh! Choosing a guy already imprinted in the minds of most viewers as a "loser" as your representative of hip and cool is, to put it mildly, incredibly moronic. But I digress ...).

At any rate, I'm saying an upturn in market share could happen. I'm hoping. I'm crossing fingers and toes. But I'm working off my own thesis, and surely discarding ChangeWave's pimpery, even if it's coincidentally aligned. :-)