Re: With Dell aboard, that 30% market share and $75 share price is already looking a lot closer, don't you think?
30% MSS in MP servers for sure, if not a lot more. I believe IBM is still Intel-only, and that's purely because they want to leverage their investment in their X3 architecture. But they only have 25% of the MP market, which leaves up to 75% up for grabs by AMD (though most likely it will be 30-50%).
That's one issue. The other is stock price, which has to do with many more factors than just the MP space. I think the Dell win will contribute a lot, but Intel's strength in the client, mobile, and DP server space is going to be overwhelming in the second half of the year, and going into next year. And given that AMD won't realize any upside from the Dell win until 2007 (shipments are expected end of year), I can see some tough months ahead that will certainly lower the stock valuation.
In other words, you can bet on a $75 stock price, but I'd rather bet on a $20 stock price.