Replies to post #209501 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[PPHMVERYLONG]

It is not undervalued based on the history of the company:


1) Although we have a drug in Phase III, the data that got us
there is in question. If it was not in question, our likely
partner would have returned. We did get fast track which
is nowhere near as impressive as breakthrough which by
definition requires "preliminary clinical evidence that
demonstrates the drug may have substantial improvement on
at least one clinically significant endpoint over available
therapy." Why we did not get this is obvious. The data was
called into question and just because we moved on to Phase
III does not remove the cloud no matter who is
responsible.



2) The trial that many claimed was supposed to have been the
confirmation trial failed creating more doubt. The impact
of the failure of this trial cannot be overstated.




We are left with one failed trial, one with disregarded data,
other trials that never seem to end and flat revenue.
This is not a record that Wall Street is going to value highly.
You have to wonder how the stock price could be so cheap if the outlook was so bright. The answer is that evidence pointing to a successful trial is not convincing to many. Pre-clinical is worthless. A successful trial with a hundred plus patients with a control group would convince many but no such trial will release results any time soon.

[patientsdeservebest]

it is easily argued there are no damages.
1) as many here have said the FDA approved Phase III so the alleged mixup didn't stop that
2) it is likely that PPHM botched the vial situation. It is a matter of record that PPHM wanted the A B and C groups to be placebo, 1 mg/kg and 3 mg/kg. Guess what, the whole purpose of a double blind study is that nobody knows what is being given. It was perfectly correct for CSM to label anyway they saw fit. Only PPHM assumed that A B and C were what they wanted. and as they cooked up the data and the censored patients before the unblinding they never figured out that the worst outcome was 1 mg/kg and that the placebo and the 3 mg/kg were nearly identical in MOS.

bottom line- PPHM does not understand what a double blind study is.