Replies to post #188318 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

ENTA/ARQL

At the company AM (annual meeting) Enta's CEO Luly was very evasive regarding to the company pipeline timeline. He stated that "it wasn't easy to schedule discoveries and inventions". It was not a response I was looking for.

Thanks for the comments.

There is something going with ARQL. Speculating, I establish a position in ARQL around $1.50
I still believe in Tivantinib in HCC where lately everybody failed in 1st- and 2nd-line HCC. Potentially, it is a quite sizable market. I expect the HCC "first look" results in Q4 15-Q1 16. It is successful, ARQL can move to $1.5B+ market cap since there will be no HCC competition and a potential for other applications (like lung and prostate).

I'm still a believer in ARQL risk-reward here and continue to hold (even if it is one of my smallest positions). It is nice to see shares finally rebound a bit. Tivantinib is obviously the big shot on goal being in P3 but still plenty of other shots on goal (Akt in orphan maybe most interesting?) and still plenty of cash. I will listen to recent CC and post any meaningful notes.

[GrthzGd]

Luly very evasive

Luly did make the potency comparison with the ICPT's OCA and target by mid-2015 to select his lead compound that DD mentioned from the JPM presentation.

Other than that, his reply to you struck me a accurate, rather than evasive, description of the difficulty that every drug company goes through in developing a reliable small molecule drug with good shelf life that goes to the right part of the body that doesn't kill people.