Farview- agree.
The short and sweet summary way to put it: is they have to come up with some pretty big bucks here pretty soon, somehow, someway.
That's the key to the entire puzzle going forward at this point IMO.
How they get those "big bucks" to keep the train rolling on down the track is the more than $million dollar question. Lots of theories, lots of speculation - but no for sure yet.
Only solid pieces of data in place at the moment that I'm aware of:
1) They filed a $100 million shelf registration with the SEC. Meaning they can "tap" into as much as $100 million in cash via selling that amount of their common shares of their stock as a secondary (non IPO) type offering(s). As far as I'm aware that shelf registration remains open and good to go if they want to use it. Will need to go back and read it again - not sure if it has an expiration of some sort or not?
2) In Dec of 2014, OCAT hired qty-3 underwriters and were proposing to sell approx. $60 million worth of their stock using that shelf registration as the underlying mechanism. Hiring qty-3 pretty high quality underwriters and having them do a lot of up front work and draft a prospectus and apparently start a mini "road show" and run a "book" and all is not cheap- I'd be totally guessing but spending say $250K to $500K for those services in just up-front fees would not surprise me in the slightest. So to pull the plug on that deal after plunking down some pretty serious coin doesn't come cheap- and thus probably isn't a willy-nilly decision for Sr. Mgt to make.
3) We then found out in early 2015 that the underwritten secondary offering of approx $60 million worth of stock (slated to fund the phase II trial, get it really rocking and rolling among paying other expenses) - we found out that offering was "pulled" and the only wording was "due to market conditions". As far as we know- the qty-3 underwriters stopped all activities they were hired for and that all as of today is essentially done, stopped, over- whatever one wants to call it. At least for now apparently.
That to me is about it so far. I don't think today's "presentation" by the CEO shed anymore light on anything not already known- especially in the critical area of cash, funding and how to fund the key phase II and really move it ahead which is a very expensive undertaking. From all appearances- the only certainty from a financial standpoint right now is they, OCAT are for all intents and purposes "living off of" Lincoln, which in and of itself is a dilutive finance vehicle and not a high quality one at that and is "fund amount limited" to less than approx $20 million or so (probably less even now, as they'd of had to have been tapping it to keep the doors open IMO and pay common monthly bills since the last balance was known).
So that's about it IMO. Cash and funding is the key to it all at this point I think and those questions are open and unanswered it appears. I think until all that is made crystal clear- the common shares probably will remain in a position of weakness and rudderless- in the slow down trend they've been in now for a long, long, long time.
Funding, big cash would be the single biggest catalyst I can see moving this stock one way or the other. Dilutive big bucks might cause down pressure on the stock for a while- but may even bump it up as uncertainty would be removed. A real golden type financial infusion of some sort- enough to fund the phase II and it probably could get this moving in a reversal uptrend and out of the bottom dragging it's stuck in now.
My 2 cents.
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