Thanks Blairman
Just trying to have an idea if the superb PS that some messages have indicated have any possibilities in real life.
Please note the Smith mentioned in this article is Laura and not our leader.
TANTALUM
While also considered a critical metal, Smith observed that the tantalum market differed from the tungsten market in that its reserves were more widely dispersed, despite over 50% of the world’s tantalum supply having originated from Africa.
“The risk to the tantalum market is that 16% of supply is estimated to originate from artisanal mining activities, while a further 23% originates from a conflict area,” she noted.
As with a number of minor metals, new technologies, leading to the miniaturisation of electronic devices, had resulted in increased use of tantalum.
Smith commented that tantalum-based capacitors, in particular, were on the rise and were increasingly used in automotive electronics, mobile phones, personal computers and wireless devices.
“Capacitators now account for 60% of tantalum consumption, compared with 51% in 2004. While growth in tantalum demand has been relatively lacklustre over the past 15 years or so, compared to other metals in the electronics sector, this application could lead to three-fold growth from 2007 levels,” Smith said.
In terms of tantalum’s tradability, she noted that, as it was not traded openly, its market has always been subject to large swings in over- and undersupply.
Most tantalum was sold under long-term contracts rather than through the spot market, which had traditionally resulted in pre-emptive buying. As a result, prices did not always immediately reflect the supply/demand deficit.
Tantalum prices had recently demonstrated volatility, increasing by over 300% to around $550/kg in 2011.
“As a result, gauging a long-term stable price is challenging, but if we assume a conservative steady growth rate of consumer electronics in the coming years of around 4%, then the market will be perfectly balanced. Growth above 4% will result in a supply shortage by next year and we, therefore, assert that prices have now bottomed out and should start reflecting our expectation of a market deficit,” said Smith.
RARE-EARTH ELEMENTS
Similar to the supply of tungsten, China controlled more than 90% of REE production, accounting for the majority of the country’s consumption and had, since the 1980s, become the sole provider of global rare earths.
Smith noted that the country had, since 2010, reduced its export quota by 40% to preserve local demand, as well as encourage local downstream production.
It had further promoted increased production efficiencies through the imposed mergers of smaller companies with larger companies in an effort to create ‘mega corporations’ with increased control over production and prices.
“In response to China’s strategy, we have observed a coordination of legal action, with Europe, the US and Japan bringing China before the World Trade Organisation. There has also been extensive government stockpiling, as well as growing support and funding for the development of alternative, non-Chinese resources,” she said.
To date, the number of advanced projects outside China totalled 51 in 15 countries with a total resources of 7 143 t.
Smith added that, despite these projects, the primary issues currently facing prospective producers was access to the required capital, as well as to the technical expertise required to separate the rare earths.
“To circumvent this, there are a number of countries, including South Africa, that are looking into the feasibility of establishing a centralised refinery,” she said.
Edited by: Chanel de Bruyn
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